UFC 101 Betting - Penn vs. Florian Prop Picks

BetUS Sportsbook Outcome Props

UFC Lightweight Title
B.J. PENN VS. KENNY FLORIAN
Date: Aug 8, 10PM EST
Location: Wachovia Center, Philadelphia, PA

Florian wins by 5 round decision
Yes      +450
No        -900

B.J.Penn wins in round 1         +500
Any other result           -1000

B.J.Penn wins in round 2         +500
Any other result           -1000

Florian wins in round 1            +1100
Any other result           -4000

Florian wins in round 2            +1100
Any other result           -4000

As B.J. Penn prepares to defend his lightweight title against Kenny Florian at UFC 101, this fight has presented an interesting scenario in the props, as far as I'm concerned. I don't consider it as puzzling as the Anderson Silva-Forrest Griffin fight because I see factors in this fight that make it a simpler idea to handicap.

That's not to say that I didn't look upon Florian as a possible upset winner. I would have loved to jump on Florian at the price that was offered, but I couldn't bring myself to it. The factor that would have led me to him would be that B.J. Penn has presented some real questions about his stamina in recent outings, especially the fight with Georges St. Pierre. At the same time, Kenny Florian's inexperience would perhaps bring up some doubt about his ability to go the distance with someone as active and aggressive as Penn can be.

Therefore, I think I can safely put some of these props on the back burner. I'm going to, for the sake of simplicity, eliminate the stuff that concerns stoppages in rounds three, four and five because I just don't see this fight going that far. In fact, they don't even appear in this story, though you can view them on the BetUS.com UFC odds section.

I am also going to discount the possibility of a Kenny Florian five-round decision win. To me, if Penn's stamina IS the problem, and Florian has the advantage because of it, I feel Penn will run out of gas during the fight, which would end it inside the distance. I don't see it, as I said. I don't see Penn losing a decision to this inexperienced a foe in this weight class, because I can't imagine Florian building up all those points over a prolonged period against someone who can do as many things as Penn can.

That having been said, it is altogether possible that Penn, mindful of being listless in the late rounds, tries to come out and throw the kitchen sink at every opportunity. He has the capacity to end this in the first round because of his abilities (and advantages) in the stand-up mode, and I guess I would expect him to do just that. If I were grading this, I might go with the +500 at BetUS on a Penn first-round victory and give it two stars (**), while a second-round win, also at +500 at BetUS, gets three stars (***), mostly because in his last 14 fights, Penn has taken his opponent out in the first round only twice.