UFC 104 Main Card Free Picks - The Last Call

The Last Call

What’s up all, get ready to place your bets because this is The Last Call…so order ‘em up.

-450 Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida vs. +325 Mauricio “Shogun” Rua
As dominant as Machida has been, Rua has some tools that can pose problems.  If Rua can exercise patience, get it to the ground and/or strike in flurries and circle out effectively, he could tame the Dragon.  

This being said, it is in Rua’s blood to attack, which falls right into the Dragon’s trap.  Expect Machida to do his standard circling as he measures the distance and Rua to eventually get overly aggressive.  The Dragon will find the opening late in the 2nd or early in the third.  I am calling Machida by a stoppage that’s a result of a counter shot followed by a finishing flurry.

-300 Cain Velasquez vs. +220 Ben Rothwell
In Velasquez’s second test against a seasoned opponent, we will see what he took from the Kongo fight.   Ben can strike and take a punch.   He will also fair much better on the ground and defending takedowns than did Kongo.

Ben will be ready to go as he as waited upwards of 10 years to get here, and he will not go quietly.   I see the difference being athleticism, Cain's lightning quick takedowns should earn him points early and wear the big man down as the fight goes, but Ben is tough and will have his moments.   I am calling Cain by decision in a tough scrap, but a Rothwell upset is not out of the question.

-105 Pat Barry vs. -125 Antoni  Hardonk
To put himself on the map, Barry should gloss himself “Pat BAAARRYYY WHITE”, and come down the aisle to “Can’t Get Enough of Your Love Babe” at worst it would be a comedic and memorable moment.  This may be his only highlight as the well schooled Hardonk will get this to the ground early and often (if Barry even makes it back to his feet).
Barry may have his moments early with some leg kick exchanges, but like most anything that starts with Barry White this will end up on the floor with some grappling, and I am calling Hardonk by submission early in round 2.

-250 Yushin Okami vs. +185 Chael Sonnen
Okami is favored coming into this one and may take Sonnen by surprise early, as he will be sober at the opening bell (are you listening Paulo Filho).  However, I see the Sonnen’s strong wrestling showing itself as the match develops.  Both guys are no stranger to going the distance and it could go either way.  This being said I am calling Sonnen in a back and slow paced fight with him continually controlling the top position.

-260 Joe “Daddy” Stevenson vs. +200 Spencer “The King” Fisher
Sit back and enjoy, as two guys known for leaving it all in the ring will lay it on the line.  I do not see this one going the distance.  Fisher will be swinging for the fences and Stevenson will be looking to draw blood with his vicious elbows from top position.  It will showcase contrast in styles, one standing and one on the ground.  I am calling the strength of Stevenson’s ground game in a stoppage early in round three.