The Year of the Dragon - Shogun vs. Machida at UFC 104

Since Lyoto Machida’s destruction of Rashad Evans, the MMA media has dubbed 2009 “The Year of the Dragon,” practically penciling in Machida for a win in his next fight regardless of opponent. Lets be a little more objective than that.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (18-3 MMA record)  is not automatic win for anyone, and many people believe that the former PRIDE champion has what it takes to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the year at UFC 104 on Saturday.

In fact, it’s pretty shocking for Rua to be an underdog, but even more shocking to see him listed as the kind of gigantic underdog he in the BetUS Sportsbook in his light heavyweight title fight against Machida (15-0).

Machida is a -450 to +325 favorite against Rua, who is coming off a brutal KO of Chuck Liddell in his last fight inside the Octagon.

Rua looked like the old Shogun in that one, outclassing the former champion Liddell before drilling him with a lunging left and moving in for the kill.

But prior to that, Shogun looked shaky to say the least against Mark Coleman as both fighters gassed out late in the fight before Shogun took home a sloppy TKO win as the aging Coleman.

Considering that performance and the fact that Liddell was obviously on the downside of his career, no one’s entirely sure if the old Shogun is back and fully recovered from his knee injuries and other problems. But if he is, he’s worth a strong look by bettors for an upset over Machida.

The most likely outcome of the fight, however, is that Machida frustrates Shogun with his elusive style the way he has everyone else and picks away at him from long range using his phenomenal arsenal of karate kicks.

Machida has never lost a round in UFC competition and is hit less often than any other fighter in the league’s history, and Shogun’s brawling style could be a bad matchup in this fight unless he fights smarter and more efficiently than ever before.

Machida has even added knockout power to his arsenal as he continues to mature and get stronger, as Evans and Thiago Silva both learned. The same fate could await Shogun this time around as Machida takes his time, gets a feel for Shogun’s style, and then answers with a few well-timed flurry of counterpunches to take him out.

Shogun is still an elite fighter, but without the head stomps and soccer kicks he and his Chute Boxe teammates were known for to finish fights in the PRIDE Fighting Championships, he just doesn’t scare people the way he used to do.

The pick: Lyoto Machida (-450)