posted November 7, 2009 at 13:00 EST in UFC / MMA Free Picks
Strikeforce Odds - Fabricio Werdum (-165) vs. Antonio “Big Foot” Silva (+135)
by Nick Meyer
Not too long ago, heavyweight Fabricio Werdum was just one fight away from a UFC title shot. But then, as fate would have it, Werdum ran into an ambush as he was forced to go up against relative unknown and top talent Junior dos Santos.
Dos Santos shocked Werdum with a massive knockout blow that knocked him down a few pegs and salary slots and sent him running into the welcome arms of the fledgling Affliction promotion.
Now, Werdum is back on track again, and if he can manage to beat his Saturday Strikeforce opponent, Antonio “Big Foot” Silva, he could be in line to fight the winner of Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers, the main event for the evening.
The only problem is that Werdum’s opponent might be equally as good as dos Santos and just as dangerous.
Silva is considered by some to be a top ten heavyweight in the world, while Werdum himself is often ranked in the same vicinity, near the bottom part of the top ten.
Many feel Silva should be ranked higher because he hasn’t had a chance to fight the same level of competition that most of the UFC guys have so far in his career.
Werdum is a -165 to +135 favorite going into the fight, which looks pretty close on paper.
But it’s hard to find an area in which he has a significant advantage. On the ground, Werdum is among the very best, but Silva is a black belt in jiu-jitsu himself and also has the strength advantage. A submission is probably Werdum’s best chance to pull of the win, however.
Silva on the other hand is massive at 6-foot-4 and he walks around close to 300 pounds much of the time. Cutting weight shouldn’t be a problem as Silva’s been ready for this fight for a while, and it is a big opportunity to make a name for himself.
Antonio Silva also counts himself as a member of the “I can Beat Brock Lesnar” club and has great confidence in his abilities. He’s solid on the feet and very good on the ground.In the end, however, Silva’s lack of speed will be his downfall. Expect Werdum to engage him on the feet for a while and land a few calculated strikes before going in and taking the big fella’s back for a rear naked choke in the second round.
Silva is a very good heavyweight fighter but he just isn’t quick enough to compete with some of the top level guys at this point. This should be one of the best fights of the month in MMA, however.
The pick: Fabricio Wedrum (-165).
