posted November 4, 2009 at 12:30 EST in UFC / MMA Free Picks
Strikeforce Main Event Pick - Fedor Emilianenko vs. Brett Rogers
by Charles Jay
Let's check the odds on this fight as they are posted at BetUS:
BetUS MMA Betting Odds
Strikeforce - November 7
Sears Centre - Hoffman Estates, IL
Heavyweights (3 rds.)
FEDOR EMILIANENKO -500
BRETT ROGERS +350
For betting purposes, let's look at the contestants:
FEDOR EMILIANENKO (30-1, 7 KO's), the -500 favorite in the BetUS MMA betting odds, is considered by some to be the best MMA fighter in the sport's brief history. His roster of strong and credible opponents is long, and includes people like Heath Herring, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Gary Goodridge, Mark Coleman, Renato Sobral, Kevin Randleman, Matt Lindland, Mirko Cro Cop and more.
Nogueira, formerly a UFC interim heavyweight champ, went the distance with him twice, among only seven such occasions Fedor has not taken an opponent out early. Fedor took out Coleman in less than two minutes at the PRIDE Grand Prix tournament in 2004. He showed amazing recuperative powers against Randleman, eliminating his man with a kimura after getting flipped on to his head; something that would have taken out almost everyone else.
One memorable fight took place on New Year's Eve of 2007, as he faced off against 7'2" kick-boxer Hong-Man Choi, and scored a first-round submission win in rather scintillating fashion.
He fought twice in the Afflciation promotion, first capturing the WAMMA heavyweight title by rather easily chopping down Tim Sylvia, a two-time UFC heavyweight champion, in 36 seconds. Then, on January 24, he weathered some pressure from Andrei Arlovski, and knocked him out with one punch. The only loss he's ever sustained was to Tsuyoshi Kohsaka, which came by way of a doctor's stoppage as a result of an illegal elbow by Kohsaka. Fedor got his revenge with a TKO in 2005.
BRETT ROGERS (10-0, 9 KO's), the +350 underdog at BetUS, is a big, imposing fighter, albeit one who has been campaigning professionally for only about three and a half years. He's a native of the Twin Cities, and brings a background of Muay Thai into this fight. He also is known as one of the best MMA fighters with his fists, which means that he'll test Fedor in stand-up mode.
He turned pro in May of 2006 with a 37-second knockout of Chris Clark. His first five encounters were basically local clubfights, then he entered Elite XC and KO's Ralph Kelly in one round. After a couple more one-round KO's, and the fading away of Elite XC he joined up with Strikeforce and stopped Abongo Humphrey on the April 11 card. Then he jumped right into a fight with Andrei Arlovski, the former UFC heavyweight champ, who had just previously been KO'd by Fedor, and took Arlovski out in just 22 seconds.
That immediately made him the top contender for the Strikeforce belt, but Rogers got an opportunity for something a little more prestigious, which is a big money shot on CBS against Fedor, who has the WAMMA title.
"The way I see it, he hasn't been tested the way I'm about to test him." That's what Rogers actually said on a recent press call.
Relax. It's just a joke. Or at least I hope it is, because if Brett Rogers is so confident as to think he is going to show Fedor Emilianenko anything he hasn't seen and hasn't overcome in his career, then he is living in a world of delusional fantasy.
The gap in terms of experience in this fight is huge. The only thing Rogers might have an edge in is that he has been in the cage. That won't trump any advantages Fedor has. Mr. Emilianenko is going to be the smaller man, but he will be quicker, you can rest assured. He is more well-rounded and has encountered everything one can possibly encounter in a mixed martial arts fight. He will end this thing quickly if he can get Rogers to the floor.
He can escape from anything, with one exception - a nice, well-timed punch. Oh, Rogers has that, you say? Well, I have seen him fight a few times and there isn't anything he has in his punching arsenal that I think is particularly impressive. Sure, he will put a lot of weight behind his punch, but it's all arm-punching. If he really knew who to deliver a left hook and/or straight right hand, he would be especially dangerous, but he doesn't, and he isn't, not for a world-class fighter like Fedor, who should see it coming or otherwise circumvent it.
I know Arlovski was claiming to have put in a lot of boxing sessions with Freddie Roach, but judging from his defense, he hasn't been training enough, or training well enough. I have seen Fedor strike, and while, like Rogers, he is not stylish, he is extremely effective and much more versatile in his stand-up game.
Notable quote from a notable chap: "I don't think he's that good, I think he's overrated and I think he might get knocked out."
If Dana White is that naive, he is vulnerable. Of course, he's not naive, but he is going to get his wish, which is that Fedor is going to emerge victorious and leave open the possibility of the UFC, the #1 organization in the world, getting its hands on the #1 fighter in the world for at least one showdown.
Not just the #1 fighter in the world now, but the #1 fighter, ever. I am much more of a casual observer of MMA than I have been at boxing, where I made a living for many years, but I have seen all the good fighters in those sports, not to mention kick-boxing, etc., and I can say with a considerable amount of conviction that Fedor Emilianenko is the best, most resilient, most efficient fighter of ANY kind I have seen.
As such, there is value all over this fight. We're going with Fedor Emilianenko over the novice Brett Rogers as a -500 favorite in the BetUS mixed martial arts betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: EMILIANENKO TO WIN -500 ****
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
