UFC Ultimate Fighter Odds - Picking the Winner

With the Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin heavyweight title fight now postponed, most of the attention in the UFC’s heavyweight division is now squarely back on The Ultimate Fighter and the race for Dana White’s six-figure contract.

And with ten fighters left from the original sixteen and two fights set to take place on Wednesday night on SpikeTV, now is as good a time as ever to get a bet in on the action in the UFC Futures section.

There are several fighters left who are a good pick to win the show, and the field has become pretty competitive, but the main favorite right now is probably Roy Nelson, who defeated Kimbo Slice fairly easily in their first TUF matchup.

Nelson is currently sitting at +200 odds, tied for Brendan Schaub as the favorite in the field of ten remaining contestants.

Nelson’s experience and jiu-jitsu prowess along with his size, at least weight wise, making him a solid pick to win it all. But his stand up looked shaky at times against Slice and he isn’t in the best shape. He also has shown a bit of a reluctance to bond with his teammates and to take instruction which would help him improve tremendously in certain areas.

Coming in third is Marcus Jones, the beast of an ex-NFL first round pick at +500 odds. Jones is a rare physical specimen whose immense power was showcased during the practice sessions of the show. He’s a good value pick right now due to his potential but a bit of a risk, especially since hasn’t fought yet.

A bit further down, we find Justin Wren at +750 odds. He is a solid wrestler and good all-around fighter but Wren doesn’t have any unique skills or abilities that top fighters have. He’s not worth a bet in my estimation due to his low ceiling in relative terms.

Among the other competitors, Mike Wessel at +1000 and Matt Mitrione are the best bets as low-risk, high-reward type of guys because of their unique attributes. Wessel has good experience having already fought in the Octagon before and possesses good power. He also has the important x-factor of being in good condition, something that has hindered other guys on the show before.

Mitrione is considered a top-notch athlete as another former NFL guy and that could take him a long way. He’s a longshot but he might be worth a look due to his natural ability.

But if you want to pick the guy I believe is most likely to win, the choice has to be Brendan Schaub. Schaub is yet another former NFL player who has the height, length, skill, and athletic ability to win the whole show. And it says a lot about his talent that Rashad Evans picked him first overall to be on his team with the recommendation of Greg Jackson, his coach and one of the sharpest minds in all of MMA.

Schaub took care of a solid prospect in Demico Rogers in his first fight and looks like the best combination of size, skill, experience, and athleticism in the house, and he would probably have a big advantage on Nelson in the stand-up department should they meet in The Ultimate Finale.