Weighing In On Federer’s US Open Title Defence Odds

Flushing Meadows – The big question in tennis betting circles, as we get set to speculate on the US Open is whether Roger Federer is past his prime. Roger Federer celebrated his 27th birthday by carrying the Swiss flag at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics.

Less than a week later, he had his Golden Olympic dreams quashed by ninth ranked James Blake in the quarters. This latest disappointment came during a year so littered with crushing defeats and weird losses that most sports bettors are left gobsmacked, wondering what the deal with Federer is.

Some say it is a slump, others are only too quick to point to the fact that he is finished – rather hastily if I may say so and a damn sight rude for is that the way to treat a player we have held for so long as one of the greats of the sport, if not the greatest ever.

Let us put it this way, while many have their doubts about Federer’s ability to win another Grand Slam title, Pete Sampras won three Grand Slam titles after his 27th birthday, the last as a 31-year old at the US Open in 2002. Federer’s pursuit of Pete Sampras’s record of 14 Grand Slam titles, which seemed to be his for the taking when he won the US Open title last year, remains where he left off at Flushing Meadows–two shy.

Though Federer is in danger of breaking his five-year streak of winning at least one Grand Slam, he still has a chance at rewriting the record books over his career – a career that is decidedly not over yet. Therefore, as we come full circle, back to Flushing Meadows the very scene of Federer’s last Grand Slam conquest, two things are certain: he will not surpass Sampras this year and Sampras, knowing his record is intact for now, can sleep a little better over the next five months.

This year was supposed to be Federer’s year. At least that was what everyone in sports betting thought when Federer finished 2007 lifting three Grand Slam titles and winning the year-end Tennis Masters Cup.

Federer started the season (albeit unbeknownst to him) with an energy-sapping mononucleosis, lost in the Australian Open semis to Novak Djokovic, received his worst drubbing by Rafael Nadal in the French Open final and succumbed to a breathtaking coup (again) by Nadal in the most intense Wimbledon final ever that left both players in tears, and viewers and sports bettors alike in awe.

Prior to Wimbledon, Federer was still the short-odds-on favourite to win the US Open title. Immediately after Wimbledon, wherein he lost his most precious crown to Rafael Nadal, a disappointing American hard court swing ensued that saw him tally up more weird defeats and caused the imminent loss of his most precious World No.1 ranking to Nadal to finally come to pass.

Whist Federer continued on a downward spiral after Wimbledon, Nadal persisted on an unrelenting course upward, substantiating his ascension to World No.1 by winning the Rogers Cup title, reaching the Cincy Masters Semis (l. to Djokovic) and winning the Olympic Gold medal in Beijing.