posted July 6, 2009 at 17:58 EST in Tennis Props
Men’s Singles Futures for the US Open
by Nila Amerova
The conclusion of Wimbledon betting at BetUS Sportsbook is the perfect overture for the fourth and final Grand Slam on the annual tennis calendar, the US Open. Over the last month, Federer proved his worth (was there any real doubt he wouldn’t? (Actually, yes! You know who you are!)) as far as tennis betting merchandise goes; he showed that regardless of his opponent and his retail value (and the mood in the tennis betting market come to that), he has the edge on the entire field. In winning the cross-Channel double – the French Open and Wimbledon – for the first time in his celebrated career to eclipse Pete Sampras’s record of 14 Grand Slam titles and reclaiming his No.1 ranking he has proven that he is the best-ever player to have graced the sport.
Federer has his exclamation point. Doubters have factory-farmed egg on their faces. Got it. Good. Yet, the hard court swing that leads us to the US Open looms ahead (first men’s event set to kick off on July 19th in Indianapolis). And a certain disingenuous statement from Federer (plot thickens) earlier this year and during not so happy times comes to mind, “thank god the hard court season is over.” Something to that effect he said in his presser after he lost to Djokovic in the semis at the Miami Masters—the encounter turned into a bit of a mental debacle for Federer (smashed his racquet he did).
At present, here are some of the BetUS futures odds to win the 2009 US Open:
- Roger Federer +135
- Andrew Murray +250
- Rafael Nadal +350
- Novak Djokovic +700
- Andy Roddick +800
- Juan Martin Del Potro +1000
- Jo Wilfried Tsonga +1500
- Fernando Verdasco +2500
Plot thickens: How, you ask. After all, all is right in Federerland. He arrives at the doorstep of the US Open Series, the favourite in the US Open futures betting market (they are on his bandwagon now) at +135. Given he has won the event five consecutive times and is coming off back-to-back Slam wins, it is impossible to cast doubt over him now with any conviction. Also, modus operandi in the market dictates his odds are going to only shorten as betting picks up pace and distance from Wimbledon grows.
Yet, for all Federer has accomplished over the last two months, the field does seem to be creeping up on Federer a little and there is value in some of the other favourites.
Murray (+250) has proven he is capable of taking Federer out on hard courts – he is after all leading their head-to-head series 6-2, including five consecutive wins over Federer (4 ATP hard court events and 1 exhibition hard court event) since losing to Federer at the 2008 US Open Final.
Djokovic (+700) has also shown he can trouble Federer. Though, Djokovic trails 4-7 lifetime, he does lead 2-0 in 2009 after beating Federer at the Miami Masters (hard) and Rome Masters (clay). Djokovic was the 2007 US Open finalist and 2008 Australian Open champion.
Andy Roddick (+800) played a heck of a match against Federer on Sunday and he was once a US Open champion (2003); but he has long been Federer’s foil ,losing 18 of their 20 previous meetings and that weighs against his newfangled value.
And then there is Rafael Nadal (+350) who leads theirs series 13-7, which includes his most impressive hard court victory over Federer at the Aussie Open final. Speaking of the elephant in the room (well maybe not right now but hopefully as soon as his knees get better) Nadal is interestingly level with Federer in hard court head-to-heads (3-3). Nadal has never won the US Open and he came as close as the semi-finals last season. Rafael Nadal has been Federer’s nemesis and measuring stick over the last five years. You have to believe that he will be a part of the equation if he competes at the 2009 US Open and is healthy.
Juan Martin Del Potro (+1000) offers some value because of his future “star” pretensions.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+1500) a one-time Grand Slam finalist (Aussie Open 2008) is an outsider in the futures market with diminishing value, as he has not been playing with much confidence lately – however, should he hit a fine run of form... anything can happen.
Fernando Verdasco (+2500), 2009 Aussie Open semi-finalist has a lot of game and perhaps his best chance to replicate his Aussie Open heroics at the US Open, still he is an outsider and has yet to prove himself against the top five or so players.
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