Handicapping the French Open

If sports betting fanatics of tennis have learned anything during this French Open, it’s that backing big favorites can be treacherous. No, none of the monsters on either the men’s or women’s side of the draw at Roland Garros have been bounced from Paris quite yet, but boy, have there been some close calls at some hefty price tags.

#2 seed Roger Federer was the most notable name to struggle during his second round match-up with Jose Acasuso. Yes, the Swiss native got through the match in four sets, but the affair could’ve finished much differently had Acasuso performed well in tiebreakers. Federer won both the first and third sets in the tiebreaker (the first of which went to 10-8) before dismantling the Argentine 6-2 in the fourth set. With odds of -2000 nothing out of the ordinary for the former #1 player in the world, one misstep can ruin, not just an entire tournament’s worth of profits, but an entire year’s worth!

The same can be said about #7 seed Gilles Simon, who was pushed to five sets in the opening round by American, Wayne Odesnik as a huge underdog. Fellow American, James Blake, who was a massive favorite in his own right, not only lost to Argentine, Leonardo Mayer, he was swept away in straight sets.

On the ladies’ side of the draw, the middle seeds have been dropping left and right. #15 Zheng Jie and #1 Nadia Petrova both went down within a matter of a few hours of each other in Round 2. #13 Marion Bartoli and #21 Alize Cornet, perhaps the two best chances on the women’s side for a Frenchwoman to capture the championship, were taken out in straight sets earlier that day. Seeds #14 (Flavia Pennetta), #16 (Amelie Mauresmo), #17 (Patty Schnyder), #19 (Kaia Kanepi), #23 (Alisa Kleybanova), and #26 (Anna Chakvetadze) are all also finished at Roland Garros.

The #2 seed in the women’s bracket had her struggle in the early rounds as well, as #2 Serena Williams, a massive favorite in Round 1, was a matter of a few points in a second set tiebreaker away from losing to unknown Klara Zakopalova. The American rallied to pick up the tiebreaker 7-5, then won the decisive set 6-4.

If there’s one consistent on the men’s side of the bracket, it’s the ease of which Rafael Nadal is still rolling through his competition. He was -300 to win this event at its outset, odds which were probably wise to invest in. He has yet to drop a set in this tournament, and has run his winning streak on the clay in Paris to 30 matches, a tournament record. Nadal will most likely become the first man to ever win this event in five straight years. It’s very difficult to see anyone else knocking him off, especially considering some of the struggles on the men’s side of the draw at the very top.

For the ladies, the situation is a heck of a lot more muddled. Even though both struggled in the first round, both Venus and Serena Williams always have to be considered threats. Names like Safina, Kuznetsova, Sharapova, Jankovic, and Dementieva are all still floating around, and could all be in the discussion by the end of the tournament. Much like we found out last year when Ana Ivanovic won the French Open, the unexpected is exactly what should be expected now that Justine Henin has retired.