posted January 19, 2009 at 09:10 EST in Tennis Betting Trends
Australian Open Preview - The Big Four
by Nila Amerova
Melbourne, Australian– By now the 2009 Australian Open draw has been released and the tennis betting marketplace is a bevy of activity with tennis betting enthusiasts placing their wagers at BetUS Sportsbook on who they think will win the Aussie Open this year. I am not alone in my excitement at the prospect of this first Grand Slam of the season. After the Grand Slam-betting term, we enjoyed last season, the two-week lead-up to the Australian Open since the start of the 2009 term has been an excruciating exercise in patience. Happily, the wait is almost over, the Aussie Open is set to kick-off and the all-important answer to the question of who will raise the coveted Aussie crown just about to get underway.
What a fortnight it promises to be. What a tournament it will be. There will be joy for the victors; there will be sorrow for the losers. There will be an upset or two (or more) that will send seismic shockwaves throughout the tournament. (You can bet on it). There even may be another Cinderella story – the stuff of Tsonga’s rise in the world of tennis last season. More importantly, all eyes will be trained on the “Big Four” – Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray – as they embark on their individual quests for one of the four coveted Grand Slam titles in an annual season.
They, and they alone, have set the standard of brilliance and harmony in motion that we have become accustomed to on the biggest stage in the sport – as all four featured in one (or in some cases more than one) of the Grand Slam finals last season. Tennis bettors would like nothing better than to see one of the many growing rivalries rekindled in Melbourne. Heck, they wouldn’t even mind seeing a sequel of the Federer-Nadal rivalry for the first time down under after it featured three times at Roland Garros and twice at the Wimbledon Championship – the last one on the hallowed grounds of the All England Club being a chart topper in the tennis-betting world.
As the 2009 Australian Open looms before us, general tennis opinion agrees: the “Big Four” should factor significantly over the next fortnight. So, my dear tennis bettors, it follows, that I should arm you with all the necessary Grand Slam facts as they pertain to the “Big Four”. (Because Federer had long been the standard to which the top ten elite were held to, it is only fair (and reasonable) to use him as the benchmark in analysing Grand Slam performance and the upcoming Australian Open futures market.)
Proven Champions: Federer and Nadal
The proven Grand Slam champions are those that have won more than one Grand Slam title – Roger Federer (13) and Rafael Nadal (5). The BetUS futures market tips both level at +250 to win outright.
Federer, Nadal and the Rivalry:
Roger Federer (+250 to win outright in BetUS futures market) has won 13 grand titles. He won the Wimbledon Championships five times in a row (2003-07); the US Open five consecutive times (2004-08), and the Australian Open three times, twice in a row (2004 and 2006-07).
Rafael Nadal (+250 to win outright at BetUS futures market) has hauled five Grand Slam crowns – four consecutive French Open titles (2005-08) and a Wimbledon crown (2008). Nadal’s best Australian Open run was in 2008, wherein he reached the semis (l. to Tsonga).
In five Grand Slam final appearances since 2005, the Federer-Nadal rivalry featured. Federer came up against his nemeses Nadal at the French Open and Wimbledon Championships; Nadal beat him four of the five times: three times at Roland Garros (2006-08) and once at the Wimbledon Championships (2008). The only Grand Slam final Federer won between the two was the 2007 Wimbledon Championships.
Australian Open 2009 Prediction: Rafael Nadal, the top seed, and Roger Federer, the second seed, have a chance to make their rivalry the final act in Melbourne. They are on opposite ends of the draw and could emerge come Sunday, two weeks from now.
The one time Grand Slam Champion: Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic (tipped at +550 in the BetUS futures market) enters the Australian Open as the defending champion having won his maiden Grand Slam title in 2008.
Note: Djokovic’s future odds have been severely slashed since winning his first-ever Grand Slam title. In 2008, Djokovic entered as one of the short-odds-on favourites, favoured above Rafael Nadal but second to Roger Federer. This year, he seems to have flunked, as of the “Big Four”, he is the least favoured.
The Federer-Djokovic Rivalry
The rivalry featured only once in a Grand Slam final – the 2007 US Open. Federer had Djokovic’s number. The second time the pair met in a Grand Slam event was the semis at the 2008 Australian Open. Djokovic avenged his US Open loss to go on to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the final.
Australian Open 2009 Prediction: This rivalry alas will not feature in the final movement as Federer and Djokovic fall in the bottom half of the draw together. It however could feature in the semis; thereby, serving up a re-match of their 2008 Australian Open semi-final.
The Pretender: Andy Murray
Andy Murray (+225 in the BetUS futures market) made his Grand Slam breakthrough last season when he reached the 2008 US Open final. Prior to that performance, Murray’s best Grand Slam result was a Wimbledon quarterfinal (in the same year). Before 2008, Murray had not reached beyond the R16. It should also be noted that Andy Murray crashed out of the opening round of the Australian Open in 2008 (l. to Tsonga). Yet, everyone, odds makers included, have jumped on to the Murray bandwagon, tipping the unproven champion as the short-odds-on favourite to win the Australian Open title – ahead of all three of his higher-ups in the ATP rankings? Embarrassing mistake or evil genius?
The one and only time the Federer-Murray Rivalry featured in a Grand Slam final was at the US Open last year. We all know how that went. Full stop. Although Murray has won their last three encounters (and one exhibition match as well) so, I suppose, there are grounds for a new script in their potential Grand Slam final story.
Australian Open 2009 Prediction: The Federer-Murray rivalry could see a second act after their 2008 US Open final, which saw a rather unprepared Murray lose in straight sets. They both fall on opposite ends of the draw and should they negotiate through their sections they could secure leading roles in the final act.
So there you have it: a quick Australian Open Preview of the “Big Four” and the “Futures Betting” market on them at BetUS Sportsbook. Some of you might be perplexed why the pretender Murray is favoured above the proven champions Federer and Nadal, and the one-time Grand Slam champion and defending champion Novak Djokovic. You are not alone. Federer, Nadal and Djokovic are just as confused; surely, theirs is a story already told. A story of Grand Slam glory. Murray story is yet to be told. How fickle are odds makers.
So will it be another sequel of the various rivalries? Or, a completely new story told with previously untold protagonists. No matter which story is told, you can bet the “Big Four” will have a hand in scripting the story. Therefore, it is with great anticipation that I, along with the rest of you dear tennis bettors, await the unfolding of this tale. May the best man win!
Stay tuned for more in-depth analysis of the 2009 Australian Open draw over the next few days.
Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.
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