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posted February 10, 2009 at 17:25 EST in Tennis Betting Trends

ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament Betting Preview

Bookmark and Share by Nila Amerova

Rotterdam, Netherlands – Though there are three ATP World Tour events running this week in the BetUS marketplace, the tournament to have caught the imagination of most tennis bettors is the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam. Why. Because world No.1 Rafael Nadal is attending and after his sensational title victory at the 2009 Australian Open – against all odds and under unfavourable conditions— the betting public is at a loss to imagine what an encore performance would look like.

Nadal is not alone in representing the elite in Rotterdam. No.4 Andy Murray joins him and they both take the top two seeds respectively. Fan favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – and the SA Open (Johannesburg) champion on Sunday – Gilles Simon and Gael Monfils are also seeded in Rotterdam. Simon leads the trio of Frenchmen as the fourth seed, followed by Monfils and Tsonga as the fifth and seventh seeds respectively. Completing the seeded line-up is Russian Nikolay Davydenko (third seed), Spaniard David Ferrer (sixth seed)and Swede Robin Soderling (eighth seed).

The presence of the two hottest players on the ATP Tour right now certainly does not help any title ambitions the rest of the playing field may be entertaining. As the top two seeds Nadal and Murray offer the prospect of a scintillating clash in the finale on Sunday; however, as desirable as such an outcome may be for the tournament, neither player can afford to look that far ahead (nor for that matter can tennis bettors). A fine group of players has arrived to compete in Rotterdam so Nadal and Murray will have a tough course to navigate through this week.

The top half of the draw, led by Nadal contains Davydenko, Monfils and Tsonga with the latter the imminent threat to the Spaniard. Tsonga falls into the same quarter as Nadal and could potentially be a quarterfinal opponent for the world No.1 player. Davydenko and Monfils who fall into the same quarter are thus expected to deliver the second quarterfinal matchup in this half of the draw.

The bottom half of the draw featuring Murray also contains Gilles Simon, David Ferrer and Robin Soderling. It is the easier section of the draw to be sure but no less threatening a section for the fiery Scot. Murray could come up against Soderling in the quarters, while Simon and Ferrer would meet in the second quarterfinal matchup in the bottom half of the draw.

In a perfect world, the tournaments eight seeds would take their appointed slots in the final eight to setup a delicious tennis-betting extravaganza in the quarters. But we all know by now that this rarely happens. The depth in men’s tennis today is such that at any turn an upset could occur.

So who are these potential upset-makers?

On the Alert list: Murray opens against veteran Ivan Ljubicic – a player who has seen better days, but at the same time, should not be underestimated. Nadal could potentially face Tomas Berdych in the second round, the player who nigh-upset Federer at the Australian Open. David Ferrer has a tough opener against Jurgen Melzer. Given that Ferrer was competing in Johannesburg last week and Melzer in nearby Zagreb, there is the problem of jetlag for the Spaniard. Ferrer has had decent results in reaching the semis in Auckland and Johannesburg, but upon closer inspection some concerning details come to light. Ferrer only played one match to reach the semis in Auckland and in Johannesburg, he had two match points against Chardy in the second set before losing in three sets.

Other Alerts to watch for: Evgeny Korolev is an explosive talent and he takes on Robin Soderling in his opening round match. On a good day, Korolev could mastermind the upset and Soderling is far from the most consistent of tour players, quick to unravel in pressure situations. Nikolay Davydenko is coming off an ankle injury so he is a question mark in his first event back since last month. He opens against a dangerous floater in Igor Andreev. Philipp Kohlschreiber takes on Gilles Simon in the opening round as well and as he has come up big on big occasions in the past, taking out Simon is not without his abilities. Upsets are likely here – albeit long shot bets – but should they happen, no matter how potentially likely they were, they would still be huge.

In form players: Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Momentum shifters: Gilles Simon, Gael Monfils and Nikolay Davydenko,

Sleepers (dangerous floaters): Tomas Berdych, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Jurgen Melzer, Robin Soderling, Igor Andreev, Mario Ancic and Richard Gasquet

Slumpers: Feliciano Lopez, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Ivo Karlovic, Mikhail Youzhny and Dmitry Tursunov

Final Prediction: I am going to go for it and say it will be a Nadal-Murray finale – a rematch of their Doha final with Nadal walking away with the title in a tight three-setter.

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room

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