posted December 6, 2008 at 19:00 EST in Other Betting Trends
Boxing Odds - The Case for Manny Pacquiao
by Charles Jay
who enjoy wagering on boxing events will be in for a real treat, as the most high-profile fight of the year will take place in Las Vegas - at the MGM Grand, to be precise - when Oscar De La Hoya and Manny Pacquiao lock horns in a confrontation between the most popular fighter in boxing and the competitor many consider to be the best pound-for-pound. The fight is a non-title affair, in the welterweight division, and is scheduled for 12 rounds.
Here are the odds on the fight, as they are posted at BetUS Sportsbook:
Las Vegas -- December 6
Welterweights
OSCAR DE LA HOYA -200
MANNY PACQUIAO +160
OVER 9.5 ROUNDS -190
UNDER 9.5 ROUNDS +155
The Story of Manny Pacquiao:
PACQUIAO (47-3-2, 35 KO's), the +160 underdog in the BetUS boxing betting odds, is considered by many to be the holder of that mythical title of best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. In his native Philippines, everything stops when he fights, and with this being the biggest fight of his career, no doubt everything will grind to a halt.. Pacquiao' never fought in the U.S. early in his career, and questions were brought up about his chin after losses to Rustico Torrecampo and Medgoen Singsurat, but Pacquiao continued to progress as a fighter, out of the flyweight division and up into the junior featherweights, which is where he was when he made his United States debut, in June 2001, by knocking out Lehlo Ledwaba to win the IBF 122-pound title. He defended that crown three times, then started going after some real money, which in the boxing business these days, generally means moving up in weight class.
He started with a TKO over Marco Antonio Barrera in November of 2003; then in May of 2004, he battled Juan Manuel Marquez for the WBA and IBF featherweight titles. Pacquiao came out like a locomotive, knocking Marquez down three times in the first round, but Marquez settled down and gradually got himself back into the fight. By the end of that thriller, each fighter got the vote of one of the judges, while the third had it a draw. He moved up another weight division to take on Erik Morales in March 2005, and was outboxed soundly by Morales in losing a decision. That loss was avenged ten months later, when Pacquiao stopped Morales in ten rounds. A second win over Morales, this time inside three swift rounds, happened in November '06, and eleven months after that there was a second victory over Barrera. One of Pacquiao's proudest wins had to be the rematch with Marquez, a hard-fought split decision in Las Vegas this past March, in which he annexed the WBC's 130-pound title. And Pacquiao added to his mantle last time out, as he jumped to the lightweights and stopped David Diaz in ten rounds for the WBC title. This whirlwind southpaw simply keeps surprising people.
The Case for Pacquiao
Every time I think that Manny Pacquiao has bitten off more than he can chew, he winds up doing something that proves me wrong. After a while, you start to wonder whether there is anything he can't do. I remember thinking that he had moved up a little too far when he lost to Erik Morales, and that was at 130. But of course, last time out he ends things for lightweight David Diaz inside the distance. Being able to hold onto some power in moving from flyweight all the way to lightweight in his career is actually kind of amazing. Pacquiao's style is not standard by any means. He is super-aggressive and somewhat unpredictable. He comes at his opponent from all angles. All of this is a positive for him as he fights De La Hoya, because as the smaller guy, he's got to look at anything he possibly can find to throw Oscar off-balance. Well, he's got it.
Pacquiao has been the more active fighter between these two guys. He has fought title bouts against both Juan Manuel Marquez and Diaz in 2008, while all Oscar has to show for the last 12 months is a win over Steve Forbes that was more or less a glorified sparring session. In fact, that's all it was meant to be, and we know that because Forbes was rewarded for losing, as he got a title fight afterward. He has the advantage of being younger (29, compared to 35 for Oscar) and he'll certainly have something of a quickness edge. Most people would probably tell you that Pacquiao has more left in the tank than Oscar, who is staying in boxing for business purposes more than anything else. Pac Man may have the capacity to make De La Hoya fight for three minutes of every round, which is something older fighters rarely want to find themselves doing.
Pacquiao is trained by Freddie Roach, who has also worked with De La Hoya, and maybe there's an edge in there somewhere for Manny. What Roach may be telling him is to emphasize any advantage he can get out of being the shorter man (by four inches), because not only has De La Hoya not exactly made a career out of fighting southpaws, he's got to punch down at his opponent to boot. I don't know if De La Hoya is aiming squarely at the knockout, but Pacquiao has a chance to avoid getting hit square all that much and taking this the distance. If he can set a tone like that, he's got a chance to out-hustle Oscar and steal some rounds, which could bring him the decision.
(Charles Jay of www.ebookies.com is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)
