NHL Free Picks - Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning

Saturday, October 24th – St. Pete Time Forum, Tampa

The Buffalo Sabres can make a strong case for best team in the league. Last Saturday Buffalo lost to Atlanta for their first regular-season loss of the year. They followed that up with a 5-2 smacking of the Florida Panthers on Wednesday. The Sabres scored three times in the first five minutes and never looked back. The whole team is clicking right now. Ryan Miller has yet to lose in regulation (backup Patrick Lalime was in net against Atlanta). Tomas Vanek scored in his first game back from injury, and young stars Clarke MacArthur and Tyler Myers are contributing nicely.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are coming off a surprise 5-2 victory over the Sharks. Steven Stamkos continued his fast start with two goals, and netminder Mike Smith got his first win of the season. The win was more impressive when you consider Tampa was outscored 11-2 in the two games prior. The Lightning are undefeated at home this season, going 3-0-1.

What The Sabres Have To Do To Win:

If the Sabres can improve on anything it’s their power play efficiency. They have only six goals in 36 opportunities. But the fact that they are 5-1-1 without an effective power play is a testament to how good the team is in every other facet of the game. Luckily for Buffalo they’re playing a Lightning team with a less than spectacular penalty kill. So this may be the game where the Sabres finally break out with the man advantage.

Ryan Miller is known for fast starts, but this year is undoubtedly his best. His numbers, 5-0-1 with a .942 SV% and 1.65 GAA, are otherworldly. Miller has proven himself to be a top goalie in the league, and this season’s hot start may put him at or near the top. His performance allows the rest of his team to play a more aggressive game, something they excel in.

What The Lightning Have To Do To Win:

They need Vincent Lecavalier to start scoring. The star center has not scored in 15 games, dating back to last season. He’s chipped in with seven assists, but the team isn’t paying him to pass. Tampa was picked by some to be a surprise team in the East, but if they want any chance of that Lecavalier is going to have to pick it up the offensive slack.

Mike Smith’s first win of the season was an encouraging sign for the Lightning. Smith was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Brad Richards to Dallas two seasons ago, and the Lightning are still waiting for him to develop into the effective starter they believe he can be. Smith will need more performances like the one against San Jose.

Interesting stat: The Lightning lead the league in short-handed goals allowed with three.

Outlook & Pick

Tampa Bay is still one of the weaker teams in the league, despite their recent win over the Sharks. Buffalo has proven itself to be one of the best. The Lightning play much better puck at home than on the road, but that won’t help them against the balanced attack of the Buffalo Sabres and the monstrous play of Ryan Miller.

Pick: Buffalo Sabres