posted September 10, 2009 at 19:44 EST in NFL Props
NFL Futures Betting - Drew Brees vs. The NFL's Best QB's
by Charles Jay
There were probably a lot of scouts who looked at Drew Brees at Purdue and saw nothing more than a product of Joe Tiller's short-passing system who wouldn't have the arm to make it in the pros. That is why the guy who finished in the top five in the Heisman voting two season running lasted into the second round of the draft before being taken by San Diego.
Brees started to become productive in his second NFL season, passing for 3284 yards, and but things went wrong in his second season as a starter, which prompted the Chargers to pick Philip Rivers in the draft. Rivers' rookie holdout gave Brees the opportunity to shine, however, and he took advantage by making the Pro Bowl and winning the Comeback Player of the Year award.
A shoulder injury eventually hastened his departure, as the Chargers wanted to give Rivers a chance. It was his good fortune that he was able to hook up with Sean Payton in New Orleans, where he has flourished with the Saints, leading them to the NFC title game on his first season and coming to within 15 yards of the all-time one-season record for passing yards last year, despite a number of injuries that took away his receivers. As it was, he finished with 5069 yards and 34 touchdowns, bringing his three-year total in New Orleans to 88 TD passes.
With that said, for NFL futures betting, let's do some matchups, keeping in mind that both players must start their team's first regular season game to have action on this prop:
BREES VS ELI MANNING
Drew Brees ~ Saints -8½ TD Passes -105
Eli Manning ~ Giants +8½ TD Passes -135
Can Brees reach 30? I think he can. If so, I would lean toward him in this prop, because I think Manning's ceiling is somewhat limited, statistically speaking. Brees will probably be working with better receivers, on balance, and Manning has the challenge of trying to develop further connections with the remaining guys in the absence of Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. BREES (-8.5, -105)
BREES VS PEYTON MANNING
Drew Brees ~ Saints -1 TD Passes -120
Peyton Manning ~ Colts +1 TD Passes -120
Well, we know that Peyton Manning is capable of throwing 40 or more touchdowns, but I think those days of offensive dominance by the Colts have slowed a bit. My feeling is that they are going to seek more balance, and that is why they drafted Donald Brown to team with Joseph Addai. Brees faces a season of having Pierre Thomas as the between-the-tackles back, and using Reggie Bush as a passing outlet again. He'll have more artillery to work with than Manning, and a coach who is all too willing. BREES (-1, -120)
BREES VS PALMER
Drew Brees ~ Saints -6½ TD Passes -120
Carson Palmer ~ Bengals +6½ TD Passes -120
It would not surprise me greatly if Palmer could come back and post some nice numbers, but you have to remember that he is coming back from an injury. The one thing you can count on from the Bengals is that if Cedric Benson doesn't supply a running game in a big way (and he's been consistent in his inconsistency) they will do nothing but air it out. In his best seasons, when healthy, Palmer has had 32, 28 and 26 TD passes. This might be worth a look. (PALMER +6.5, -120)
BREES VS RIVERS
Drew Brees ~ Saints -2½ TD Passes -120
Philip Rivers ~ Chargers +2½ TD Passes -120
Rivers had a career season last year, leading the NFL in quarterback rating. With 34 TD passes, he actually had as many as Brees, and should be even sharper with his connections this season. I frankly don't see LaDanian Tomlinson having a big year, which may help Rivers in this TD stat, but it may still be a lot to ask of this guy. BREES (-2.5, -120)
BREES VS MCNABB
Drew Brees ~ Saints -7½ TD Passes -120
Donovan McNabb ~ Eagles +7½ TD Passes -120
I know that the Eagles have laid it all out there, getting McNabb as many weapons as they possibly could. I think that McNabb has to stay healthy all season to be able to stay within shouting range of Brees, and he also has to stay out of slumps, something he is prone to and which Brees does not normally fall victim to. BREES (-7.5, -120)
BREES VS CUTLER
Drew Brees ~ Saints -5½ TD Passes -120
Jay Cutler ~ Bears +5½ TD Passes -120
I'm not saying that it was a bad move for the Chicago Bears to pick up Jay Cutler, because he gives them their best chance to challenge in the NFC North, but in this first season, they have just not surrounded him with enough receiving talent to make things happen on a large scale. As far as imagination is concerned, Lovie Smith is not in the same ballpark as Sean Payton. BREES (-5.5, -120)
BREES VS ROMO
Drew Brees ~ Saints -1½ TD Passes -120
Tony Romo ~ Cowboys +1½ TD Passes -120
Tony Romo is a little like Brees in the respect that he can take what may look like a limited crew and put up some numbers with them, but he will have to really work some magic to light up the scoreboard, unless Roy Williams becomes a major player again. You can't rely on Jason Witten alone. Brees has the better "go-to" receiver on his roster (Marques Colston). BREES (-1.5, -120)
BREES VS RODGERS
Drew Brees ~ Saints -1½ TD Passes -120
Aaron Rodgers ~ Packers +1½ TD Passes -120
You have to have a lot of respect for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, and he has a key to coming up big in this statistical category, which are receivers who can do something with the ball once they catch it. Still, weather conditions on Brees' home field are more conducive to passing, especially in the second half of the season, and it remains to be seen whether Rodgers will have a tougher time of it as defensive coordinators have seen him once around the track. BREES (-1.5, -120)
