posted November 4, 2009 at 12:20 EST in NFL Free Picks
NFL Game of the Week - San Diego Chargers vs. New York Giants
NFL Week 9 Betting: San Diego Chargers vs. New York Giants
Game-day: 11/8/2009
Kick-off: 4:15 pm EST
The New York Giants are in trouble. After winning their first three games to start the 2009 NFL Season, the Giants have gone 0 and 3 and it’s been a bad 0 and 3 at that.
The New Orleans Saints exploited them for 48 points in an ugly 48 to 27 loss. The Arizona Cardinals upset them at home as 9 point favorites 24 to 17. Then, just this past Sunday, the G-Men were hammered by the rival Philadelphia Eagles 40 to 17 as 1 point underdogs.
In all three games, the Giants gave up yards through the air. The Saints put up 360. The Cardinals put up 216 and Donovan McNabb and the Eagles put up 211. Now, they must face the San Diego Chargers that averages 276 yards through the air per game.
To make matters worse for the Giants, Eli Manning, their star quarterback, has played about as well as New York’s defense in the last three games. Manning’s QB rating in each of the Giants’ last three games has been 61, 47.5 and 55.7. He’s thrown 6 interceptions and only 3 touchdowns in the three losses.
Luckily for him, San Diego’s defense can be up or down. Sometimes, like they did in the game against the Kansas City Chiefs, the defense can come to play. The Chargers allowed K.C. to put up only 7 points in that game.
Then, other times, the Chargers’ D can be absolutely atrocious. San Diego allowed Denver to put up 34 points on them in a home loss as 3 ½ point favorites in Week 6.
Which San Diego defense is going to show up? That’s the big question in this game because it’s probably going to determine the winner.
Here are the NFL betting odds for this game in the NFL sportsbook.
San Diego Chargers +4 ½ -110 O 47 -110
New York Giants -4 ½ -110 U 47 -110
Below are a few online betting trends for this game.
- The San Diego Chargers are 3 and 7 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
- The Over is 5 and 1 in the San Diego Chargers last 6 games versus a team with a winning record.
- The Over is 3-1-1 in the New York Giants last 5 games overall.
Now, let’s take a look at how the offenses and defenses matchup.
Chargers’ Offense vs. Giants’ Defense
Don’t blame QB Phillip Rivers for San Diego’s issues. Rivers leads a passing attack that averages 276 yards per game through the air. He’s thrown for over 2036 yards, 11 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions and has a 95 QB rating.
Rivers almost wills his team to victory. That’s a nice thing to say about Phillip but the fact that he has to will his team to victory is the problem. San Diego’s issue is that even though they have two very good running backs in Darren Sproles and LaDanian Tomlinson, they only average 75 yards on the ground per game.
Of course, the Giants’ issues have nothing to do with stopping the run. New York’s defense is adept at keeping teams from going wild on the ground. It’s through the air where they’ve been having issues. Why? Injuries, of course.
The G-Men had to place starting safety Kenny Phillips on I-R and starting cornerback Aaron Ross has been out. Ross is questionable this week. Without him, the G-Men have not shot of stopping Rivers from putting up big numbers. Even with Ross, Rivers is so good right now that keeping the Chargers from putting up 300 yards through the air is going to be tough.
Chargers’ Defense vs. Giants’ Offense
The Chargers’ D, as I wrote above, can be great one day and bad the next. Which Chargers’ D will show up on Sunday?
More than likely it will be the bad one. San Diego has been terrific defensively in their last two games, but that has been against Kansas City and Oakland. New York presents a whole different set of issues.
Expect the Chargers’ D to play against Eli Manning the way it did against Kyle Orton for Denver when the Broncos’ QB put up 229 yards and 2 touchdowns when gong 20 for 29. Of course, Eli Manning is going to have to play well.
The key with the Giants’ offense is whether or not Eli can settle down and keep from throwing picks. If he can do that, then there’s no doubt that both of the Giants’ running backs, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs can run through San Diego’s defense.
Manning will need to keep that 8th man out of the box by throwing quick strikes to Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. It would help the Giants as well if Kevin Boss, their talented tight-end, gets involved early.
If Eli and the Giants can do that, throw to Smith, Boss and Manningham, then they can keep Rivers off of the field and control the game with their running backs.
The Best NFL Bet Is…
Over the total of 47. The Giants will score a lot of points, but their defense just isn’t good enough right now to keep Phillip Rivers and San Diego’s offense from putting up points.
Also, LaDanian Tomlinson is getting healthier week by week and the Chargers are starting to use Darren Sproles more. San Diego won’t win this game and they might get beat by more than the 4 ½ point wagering spread, but they will put up points.
That means that the bet is on over 47.
