posted November 2, 2009 at 19:00 EST in NFL Articles
NFL Week 8 Monday Night Football Betting - Falcons at Saints
by BetUS Staff
Monday Night Football
The NFL betting picture is down to two undefeated teams after the Colts’ win and the Broncos’ loss on Sunday afternoon. Indianapolis improved to 7-0 with its 18-14 escape over San Francisco at Lucas Oil Stadium, while Denver was smacked 30-7 at Baltimore to fall to 6-1.
The Broncos remain a better wager than the Colts, even if they came nowhere close to covering as 4.5-point underdogs against the Ravens. Denver is now 6-1 ATS after missing out on its first payday of the season on Sunday, while Indy dropped to 5-2 against the number after failing to cash as 13-point chalk against the 49ers.
Sunday’s developments left the Saints as the NFL’s only unbeaten team in the standings – and at the window – heading into their showdown with the Falcons on NFL Monday Night Football.
Atlanta at New Orleans (-11.5, 55) – 8:30 PM ET
It’s a mismatch of the New Orleans Saints’ (6-0, 6-0 ATS) potent air attack and the Atlanta Falcons’ (4-2, 4-2 ATS) suspect defensive secondary when the NFC South rivals clash at the Superdome on Monday night.
Judging by oddsmakers’ behavior this week, the betting public is aware of the difficulties facing Atlanta against New Orleans’ passing game. The Saints opened as 9-point favorites late last Sunday night, but heavy action on New Orleans forced oddsmakers to adjust throughout the week. Despite the extra 2.5 points that’s already been tacked on the Saints’ tag for the Monday nighter, don’t be surprised if they’re giving 12 points by kickoff.
New Orleans has the best passing – and overall – offense in the league, and has scored at least 45 points on four occasions this season. The Saints put up 36 points in the second half to overcome a three-touchdown deficit in their 46-34 win as 6-point chalk at Miami last week. New Orleans took the lead for good on Drew Brees’ 2-yard TD dive with 8:35 remaining, and didn’t look back in taking their sixth payday of the season.
Brees had his worst game of the year against the Dolphins, going 22-of-38 for 298 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions. The Saints’ impressive running game picked up the slack for Brees, racking up three TDs on the ground to bail out New Orleans backers. Behind the backfield trio of Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas, and Reggie Bush, the Saints ranked third in the NFL in rushing heading into Week 8.
Atlanta came into Sunday’s games 25th in defense after its poor performance against Dallas last week. Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo shredded the Falcons’ secondary, finishing 21-of-29 for 311 yards with three TD passes in Dallas’ 37-21 win as 5.5-point faves at Cowboys Stadium.
On the other side of the ball, Matt Ryan struggled for Atlanta, going 19-of-35 for two touchdowns and two interceptions. The second-year QB had two picks in consecutive games for the first time in his career, although he was forced into many throws because of Michael Turner’s difficulties in the backfield. Turner had only 50 rushing yards on 18 carries with a score for the Falcons, who should be without running backs Chris Snelling (hamstring) and Jerious Norwood (hip) against the Saints.
Ryan and the offense have to keep pace with New Orleans in order for Atlanta to cover in the Monday nighter. That’s because the Saints are sure to score through the air against the Falcons’ cornerback corps of Chris Houston, Chevis Jackson, and Brent Grimes. There isn’t a shutdown corner between the three, and that’s exacerbated by pass-rusher John Abraham’s struggles up front. If Atlanta can’t get pressure on Brees, it’s going to be a long Monday night for Falcons bettors.
Something for bettors to watch on Monday night is the efficiency of New Orleans’ running game without the services of fullback Heath Evans. Evans tore the ACL in his knee in the Saints’ win over the Dolphins last week, and is likely out for the season. On the defensive side of the ball, defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis (knee) and linebacker Scott Fujita (leg) are both doubtful for New Orleans.
The NFL handicapping trends on the game certainly favors the profitable Saints. New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last eight contests at the Superdome, and has taken five of the last six meetings between the teams (4-2 ATS).
