posted October 13, 2009 at 16:07 EST in NCAA F Props
College Football Props - Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Monroe
by Mike Rose
Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe
Tuesday, October 13, 2009 - 8 PM ET
1st Half Odds
Arkansas State (Even) pick'em Louisiana-Monroe (-120)
Total 27 (Over -105, Under -115)
Okay, what does this mean? Well, you are football betting on who is going to "win" the first half; that is, who is going to be ahead at halftime. If you bet ULM and win, you will lay 6-to-5, or 120-to-100, and will be paid on that basis. If Arkansas State is ahead, you'll be paid at even money.
With the first half total, you'll lay $115 for every $100 you are looking to win if the score goes OVER the total of 27 at the half, and lay $100 to win $100 on the score going UNDER that total.
If it ties, you'll get a "push" and the bet is essentially off, with the money returned.
You have individual team totals you can take a look at as well:
In this instance, Arkansas State's first half total is 13; you are going to lay -115 either way on this one, whether you want the over or the under. The home team, Louisiana-Monroe, carries a total of 13.5, and you'll do the same thing here - lay -115 either way.
You can also break things down to a first quarter proposition. For example, you can bet on either Arkansas State or Louisiana-Monroe to be ahead at the end of the first 15 minutes of action. They are listed as a pick'em proposition here, but you are asked to lay -120 with ULM, while you will lay -110 with Arkansas State.
That means the following: if you like Louisiana-Monroe in the first quarter, you're going to lay $120 for every $100 you hope to win, so your $100 bet is actually a $120 bet. You will win $100 on it, and could lose $120.
Regarding the first-half proposition, it is worth noting that Arkansas State has been outscored by its Division I opponents by a margin of 58-23.
They got off to a 24-6 halftime deficit against Nebraska, and were down 20-10 against Troy and trailed Iowa 14-7 after the first 30 minutes. Louisiana-Monroe trailed Texas 38-10 at the half (and it didn't get a whole lot better from there). They were also down 24-7 to Arizona State, although the Redhawks did much better against their Sun Belt rivals, leading Florida Atlantic 20-15 on the way to a 27-25 win, and getting off to a 24-14 halftime lead against Florida International before winning a 48-35 decision.
I'm not sure this offers comprehensive evidence that Arkansas State is the slower starting team, but I think the fundamentals in this matchup slightly favor Louisiana-Monroe, because they have a more versatile quarterback as well as a running game that is spearheaded by some in Frank Goodin who is developing into a real go-to guy. Charlie Weatherbie, who had formerly been the head coach at Utah State and Navy, installed a spread offense, and from his progress, it looks as if quarterback Trey Revell has been adapting to it quite nicely, hitting for 273 yards and a pair of touchdowns last time out against FIU. So far it looks like Weatherbie is getting a nice response from twenty returning starters. This is a veteran team.
One factor that may be important to point out is that Arkansas State, which might normally have its own group of fans who travel for the game, which would tend to have more of an effect in these sparsely-populated Sun Belt venues, may not make such a trip because the game is being played on a Tuesday night.
This is a rare opportunity for Louisiana-Monroe to come out and play in front of a national television audience at home. I'll give them a little more of a chance to get out to a lead. That would require, of course, that I lay -120 on ULM, and I don't know if that is worth it as far as a game that was a pick’em up until yesterday and mow has Monroe as a two-point favorite. It's quite possible that it will rain (40% chance), though I don't know whether that will have a major effect.
I'm going to take ULM in the first quarter proposition over ASU, and yes, I'll lay the -120. We'll be betting on the adrenaline factor.
Then we wait for halftime, when more propositions will be coming down the pike.
