College Football Betting - Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Navy Midshipmen (6-3 SU, 3-4-2 ATS) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2 SU, 2-6 ATS)

Saturday, November 7 - 2:30 PM ET

BetUS NCAA College Football Betting Odds:  NOTRE DAME -11, Total 55.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• NAVY is 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven games
• NAVY has won five of its last six games SU
• NAVY has played four of its last games OVER the total
• NAVY has covered 17 of its last 25 road games SU
• NAVY has won six of its last nine road games SU
• NAVY has played four of its last five road games OVER the total
• ND has covered one of its last seven games
• ND has won five of its last six games SU
• ND has covered one of its last five home games
• ND has won five of its last six home games SU

Also....

• ND has won 44 of the last 45 meetings SU
• Five of the last seven meetings have gone OVER the total
• NAVY has covered the last nine meetings as the road team
• ND has won five of the last six meetings SU as the home team

Two years ago Navy Midshipmen took advantage of a dreary season on the part of Notre Dame and broke a 43-game losing streak to the Irish with a dramatic 46-44 win. Last season Notre Dame brought things back to "normal" with a 27-21 victory, in which they held the Middies to just 178 yards on the ground.

Navy was held to 227 yards rushing by Temple last week, which was by no means their lowest total of the year (Ohio State, Pittsburgh and Air Force held them to less), and allowed the Owls to ramble for 274 yards in what was a painful loss for them. Quarterback Ricky Dobbs, who only took seven snaps in the Temple game, has a right knee injury which involves a cracked bone. That sounds even more painful than that loss, but he has been cleared to start the game on Saturday. Dobbs is the national leader in rushing touchdowns with 16.

Notre Dame cruised to a 40-14 win over Washington State last week, and Charlie Weis' team has Pittsburgh upcoming. Jimmy Clausen is holding onto his spot as the #2-rated passer in the country, something the school had hoped for him when he came to South Bend (and the initial press conference at the College Football Hall of Fame) as the most ballyhooed recruit in the country. Clausen is a 67% passer who has tossed 18 touchdown passes with just two interceptions. The thing that is so effective about Clausen is that his passes have gone for nine yards an attempt. His main guy, of course, is Golden Tate, who is averaging over 16 yards a catch and has scored nine touchdowns.

Dobbs is a critical element to running the triple option (third in the nation in rushing with 280 yards a game), and although we concede he's not the only one on the roster who can do it, we certainly have to admit that he's their best. That's why, if he has to go at half speed, the Middies are in trouble. At the same time, Clausen's mobility has been limited somewhat as he's got a pretty sore toe.

While they are fundamentally stronger and more talented, we are suspicious of Notre Dame's ability to cover. The Irish have had no success whatsoever when laying points, losing all six in that situation this year in college football betting. Navy has covered on its last nine trips to South Bend, so you know this game takes on an extra special meaning to them. We're willing to take the points with the disciplined Midshipmen, the 11-point underdogs in the BetUS college football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: NAVY +11 *** 

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)