College Football Betting - Bowling Green at Buffalo

Bowling Green Falcons (3-5 SU & ATS) at Buffalo Bulls (3-5 SU, 3-4 ATS)

Tuesday, November 3 - 7 PM ET

BetUS College Football Betting Odds:  BUFFALO -3

Here are some of the NCAAF betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• BG has covered one of its last six games
• BG has lost five of its last seven games SU
• BG has played six of its last nine games UNDER the total
• BG has covered nine of its last 11 road games
• BG has won four of its last six road games SU
• BG has played six of its last seven road games UNDER the total
• BUFF has lost five of its last seven games SU

Also....

• BUFF has covered four of the last six meetings
• BG has won four of the last five meetings SU

Since his team has no running game (averaging 61.6 ypg, last in the country), in order to give them the best chance to win in college football betting, Tyler Sheehan has been forced to take to the air more than any Division I quarterback in the country, except for Case Keenum of Houston. Sheehan is not rated in the nation's top fifty in terms of passing efficiency, but he has thrown 382 passes and completed 65% of them and has only tossed five interceptions, so he has not let things get out of control. He does a lot of dinking and dunking, so he needs receivers who can run with the ball once they catch it to be effective.

Sheehan has a guy who through sheer numbers has to be considered for the Biletnikoff Award for the nation's outstanding wide receiver. Certainly Freddie Barnes has been the most productive, with 99 catches for 1054 yards. He leads the nation in both receptions and receiving yards.

After getting off to a 1-4 start that included losses to Boise State and Missouri, Bowling Green Falcons won a pair of road games against Kent State and Ball State, but they failed to "hold serve" at home against Central Michigan (both straight-up and in college football betting) ten days ago, in a game where Sheehan had 341 yards and the defense held Dan LeFevour to 147 passing yards but couldn't stop a rushing play to save their lives.

CMU ran for 259 yards (128 by the mobile LeFevour), and that really symbolizes the major problem for the Falcons, which is their inability to clog holes. Everybody runs against this team (5.8 ypc allowed) and that's Buffalo's mission.

They may get lucky, but then again, they may not. Ike Nduka, a junior who was not ticketed for stardom at the season's outset, and may not even have played that much if James Starks had not elected to have surgery, has been close to unstoppable for the Buffalo Bulls in recent weeks.

 In the last three games where he has been healthy, Nduka has run for 172, 131 and 172 yards, and before the last one he was listed as questionable with a high ankle sprain. He is again listed as questionable, along with Brandon Thermilius and Mario Henry, so the Bulls seem to be banged up in the backfield. However, one-legged runners could probably gain yardage against Bowling Green. 

That's our problem here. Buffalo may not have a lot of depth in the secondary, but they have seen some pretty good passers, including LeFevour, Western Michigan's Tim Hiller, Pittsburgh's Bill Stull and UTEP's Trevor Vittatoe, and the point is that they likely won't be intimidated. But when you go on the road, like Bowling Green is, and you can't stop the run, it could be a long night. We're going to lay the points with Turner Gill's team, the three-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY:  BUFFALO -3 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)