posted July 2, 2009 at 12:55 EST in NCAA F Articles
NCAA Futures - The PAC-10 (Bottom 6)
by Charles Jay
A QUICK LOOK AT THE PAC-10
As has often been the case during Pete Carroll's tenure at USC, it's the Trojans, and then the rest of the pack in this conference.
Let's go team by team and look at everyone's prospects:
To Win Pacific 10 Conference
Arizona +3000
Arizona State +2000
California +500
Oregon +500
Oregon State +1000
Stanford +3300
UCLA +1000
Southern Cal -375
Washington +7500
Washington State +10000
UCLA (+1000 at BetUS) can't help but improve on its 4-8 record. The problem for second-year coach Rick Neuheisel is that he has to go with a redshirt freshman at quarterback. Kevin Prince has already been announced as the starter, and if he doesn't work out it's likely Kevin Craft, who threw 20 interceptions to go along with seven TD's in '08. A piece of good news is that the offensive line looks stronger, because of more experience and the arrival of center Kai Maivia, who transferred from Colorado, and it will have to be because this was the worst rushing team in the conference last season. The difficulty with the defense, which returns seven starters, was not that it lacked talent, but that the offense couldn't manage to give it a rest. That could once again be the challenge. Look for defensive tackle Brian Price to show up on some All-America lists.
ARIZONA STATE (+200 at BetUS) failed miserably against the better-caliber teams, and now they will have to go about their business without Rudy Carpenter, the four-year starter at quarterback who graduated. Danny Suillivan, who replaces him, is a senior who completed 35% in limited action last season. The offensive line is a deep bunch, and if Sullivan gets time, he should be able to connect with some decent receivers in Chris McGaha (35 catches), Kerry Taylor (405 yards) and Kyle Wiliams (19.2 yards per catch). Getting a ground attack going, however, is a big priority. There is an athletic defense here, which features a top pass rusher in Dexter Davis. You can't count on the Sun Devils to be a contender in the Pac-10, but a bowl is not out of the question. The wild card in this mix is freshman quarterback Brock Osweiler, a standout basketball player as well who spurned a scholarship at Gonzaga to vie for the QB spot. If Sullivan isn't the answer, he can step in.
ARIZONA (+3000 at BetUS) went to a bowl game last year (and beat BYU), which was a big deal. They lost good players like quarterback Willie Tuitama, wide receiver Mike Thomas and left tackle Eben Britton, but return virtually everyone else. There will probably be more of a burden on running back Nic Grigsby, who averaged 5.4 yards a carry last season, and tight end Rob Gronkowski, who may be one of the nation's three or four best at his position. This year they're going to rely on experience to propel the defense, especially up front, where they return the entire two-deep. Look for improvement there, and for the Wildcats to pull off an upset or two.
STANFORD (+3300 at BetUS) will most likely have a change of hands at the quarterback position. They couldn't have been too satisfied with Tavila Pritchard and his ratio of ten touchdowns to 13 interceptions, and it is looking more like Andrew Luck, a redshirt freshman with great tools who tossed five TD passes in the spring game, will get a chance at the helm. Still, the focal point of this offense will be stocky running back Toby Gerhart, who averaged 5.4 yards a carry last year on his way to 1136 net yards. With the potential upside of Luck, a reliable Gerhart, and what could be a vastly improved defense, it would be no shocker if Stanford elevated itself into the "first division" of this conference.
WASHINGTON (+7500 at BetUS) went 0-12 last season, which spelled the end for Tyrone Willingham. Replacing him was Steve Sarkisian, who was spending his time as assistant head coach (in addition to handling the quarterbacks) at USC. He gets 18 starters back, and then there's Jake Locker, who is a dual threat at quarterback, though he must improve his passing accuracy. He makes things happen, though, and the Huskies' offense will take on a much different character if he is fully recovered from the broken thumb that kept him out of the last eight games. This team needs to be better at the line of scrimmage - they had no rushing game (2.7 ypc) and allowed opponents to run for 5.7 yards a pop. With more experience, they should improve, however, and give Sarkisian a few wins in his rookie season.
WASHINGTON STATE (+10000 at BetUS) was quite possibly the worst team in any BCS conference, allowing 58 points or more six times, allowing 43 sacks, going minus-25 in the turnover category, and in general lacking many fundamentals. Quarterback Keith Lopina, who may be the starter again, threw 11 interceptions without a touchdown. With 15 starters back, they should keep the laughter down to a respectable level but they may not win a conference game.
