posted April 4, 2009 at 12:00 EST in NCAA B Free Picks
Weekend Parlay - NBA and NCAA Pick
One of the strengths of the BetUS Sportsbook is the ability it gives gamblers to bet cross league parlays. For instance, if a bettor likes a game in the NBA and likes a game in college basketball, that bettor can go ahead and put both games into his parlay.
Such is the case this Saturday where a game in the Final Four and a game in the NBA provides a nice two team parlay for gamblers.
Let’s take a look at the parlay.
Parlay Game #1
Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
Projected line: Atlanta +3 ½
Projected BetUS Total: 193 ½
Analysis: The game between the Magic and Hawks should be an excellent one. Orlando is so good ATS that it will be impossible for the Hawks to be favored in this game. Orlando might climb to 4 to 4 ½ point favorite status.
Now, if Atlanta does end up as the favorite, then things still might be okay for gamblers wanting to back the Hawks because the Magic has to play the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday night before traveling to Atlanta. The Magic no doubt will be unfocused for the Hawks.
Also in the Hawks favor is the fact that the last time these two teams met, the Magic absolutely destroyed the Hawks by a score of 121 to 87 due in large part to the play of Jameer Nelson who is injured for the season. Atlanta faces a Nelson-less Magic team in this game and should enjoy the fact that they won’t have to keep Nelson from dishing perfectly to Dwight Howard.
Against the spread, the Magic is one of the best in the NBA at 46-27-1 while Atlanta is almost as good at 41-33-1. The advantage that the Hawks have in this game is that they are 22-15-1 at home ATS.
The Magic have the tougher assignment having to play Cleveland on Friday night but the Hawks don’t get a break when they face the Boston Celtics on the road on Friday night. Which teams will be less likely to have a letdown on Saturday? It should be the Atlanta Hawks who get the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd.
Atlanta will be an underdog, playing in front of their home crowd, against a team that will have to face LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers the night before.
I like Atlanta against the spread in this game. My hope is that the Hawks receive as many points as possible ATS, but I’ll put them in the parlay at +2 ½ or higher.
Parlay Game #2
Villanova Wildcats vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Betting Line: Villanova +7
BetUS Total: 158 ½
Analysis: North Carolina has been unstoppable so far in the NCAA Tournament but one look and it seems like the Tar Heels haven’t been playing the best of the best. That could bite them in the ass in this game because Villanova has been playing against the best of the best.
The Wildcats enter their semi-final game in the Final Four having to have gone through three of the supposedly top teams in the tournament. In the second round, as 2 ½ point favorites, ‘Nova beat the UCLA Bruins, who started three players that had been to three straight Final Fours, by 20 points 85 to 65.
Then, in their third round game, the Villanova Wildcats throttled the Duke Blue Devils, the ACC Tournament champions, as 2 ½ point underdogs by a score of 77 to 54.
Finally, in their third round game, with a trip to the Final Four at stake, Villanova beat the rival, and #1 seeded, Pittsburgh Panthers as 2 point underdogs, 78 to 76.
Without a doubt, Villanova is battle tested. This is in stark contrast to the North Carolina Tar Heels who had a much easier road to this Final Four than ‘Nova did. NC got to play LSU, Gonzaga and Oklahoma. Oklahoma was an excellent team during the regular season, but the Sooners really only had one player that matched up against the Tar Heels. That player, Blake Griffin, had a fantastic game but the strength of North Carolina is in their depth and the Sooners were easily defeated.
Villanova has no such depth problems. In their last game, the victory over Pittsburgh, four out of the five players in Villanova’s starting five scored in double-figures. Not only that, but there really isn’t a player on North Carolina’s team that can match up with Scottie Reynolds in the back court.
NC’s star point guard, Ty Lawson, had dominated in this tournament but Scottie Reynolds poses all sorts of problems for Lawson. Reynolds has experience speed, scoring ability, and his vision on the court is excellent. Reynolds is a true point-guard while Lawson has been used to playing against point-guards that look to score first, like himself.
This game is going to come down to which team has had to scrape and struggle to get here. That team will be the one that shows up on Saturday. The betting line opened at Tar Heels -4 ½. It quickly rose to Tar Heels -7.
The money is going towards North Carolina. I’m going the opposite direction in this game. I believe that Villanova is an excellent wager at +7 in the Sportsbook against North Carolina.
I’ll be putting Villanova into the two team parlay at +7.
