Detroit Rock City - Michigan State vs. North Carolina for all the Marbles

NCAA Basketball Sports Betting

Michigan State Spartans (31-6 SU, 21-13 ATS) vs North Carolina Tar Heels (33-4 SU, 17-19 ATS)

NCAA Championship @ Detroit
Monday, April 6

BetUS NCAA Basketball Sports Betting Odds:  NORTH CAROLINA -7.5, Total 152.5

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• MSU has eon and covered its last five games
• MSU has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• MSU has played 11 of itys last 16 games UNDER the total
• NC has won and covered its last five games
• NC has played seven of its last eight games UNDER the total
• NC has won and covered five of the last seven meetings
  
  

These two last met, famously, on December 3rd right here at Ford Field. North Carolina embarrassed the home squad, holding Michigan State to 35% shooting, as the Spartans didn’t have any inside game with big man, Goran Suton, sitting out with a knee injury. The Spartans also turned the ball over 21 times in that contest. The scheduling dynamic greatly handicapped Michigan State, which was playing its fourth game in a week, while North Carolina had played just once in the last seven days and had nine days off afterward.

You can read whatever you want into that game, but what it tells me is exactly what North Carolina can do to a Michigan State team that has a bad night, for whatever reason. But Tom Izzo did not guide five teams to the Final Four and one of them to a national title by not knowing how to adjust. He knows what North Carolina wants to do, which is to push the pace, up and down the floor. The Tar Heels have a general idea of what Izzo wants to do, but they may be a bit unsure of HOW he wants to do it, which may be something of an advantage for Michigan State here.

I would not expect Michigan State to use a lot of ball pressure in this game, because that will just serve to amp up the pace. What they may do is get into a good half-court defense, as quickly as possible, and play their men, to minimize the effect of the speedy Ty Lawson driving into the lane. If they stay back they will also be able to collapse better on Tyler Hansbrough. What they would like to do is turn North Carolina into a jump-shooting team, and though they may get beat that way too, it's better than allowing a lot of easy baskets or having to hack a guy who hits 86% from the free throw line.

On offense, I would look for the Spartans to play deliberately and use the shot clock. This is no big surprise, but what may come as a revelation to some is how easy Kalin Lucas, the Big Ten player of the year, will deal with any pressing techniques North Carolina uses in its own attempts to get Michigan State to get into its offense and take shots faster. Lucas is the steadying influence with the ball, and Travis Walton, who had eight assists against U-Conn, is the guy who is going to hassle Lawson the most. He helped limit A.J. Price to 5-for-20 shooting on Saturday. Korie Lucious showed he can kick in off the bench with 11 points in nine minutes against the Huskies, and becomes yet another useful weapon for Izzo in reserve, something Roy Williams doesn't have at his disposal. Raymar Morgan, who we targeted as a possible X-factor in the national semi-final came through with 18 points and nine rebounds, and may have finally shaken some physical and mental difficulties that have hindered him.