posted October 21, 2009 at 16:28 EST in NCAA B Articles
NCAA Basketball Futures - Odds to Win the Pac 10
by Charles Jay
Here's our capsule preview of the upcoming Pac-10 basketball betting season, but first let's look at the odds at BetUS Sportsbook on each of the teams, keeping in mind that the team that is the #1 seed for the conference tourney (in other words, the regular season champion, not the tournament champion) will be the one that pays.
To Win Pac 10 Championship
- Arizona +500
- Arizona State +2000
- California +300
- Oregon +1200
- Oregon State +1000
- Stanford +2000
- UCLA +250
- Southern Cal +3000
- Washington +500
- Washington State +1500
Let's take them one by one:
ARIZONA (+500 – 21-14 SU, 20-15 ATS last year) -- New coach Sean Miller comes over from Xavier, and he has his work cut out for him after losing Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger to the NBA Draft. He'll be okay with Nic Wise back at point guard, though, and his backcourt mate, Kyle Fogg, is a genuine defensive presence. A bunch of big-time recruits are on hand; one of them, Kevin Parrom, could take Budinger's place. Another, Kyryl Natyazhko, out of the IMG Academy, could wind up manning the center spot. This is a team where Miller plans to give the youngsters plenty of playing time, and as such, they could make a move in the second half of the schedule.
ARIZONA STATE (+2000 – 25-10 SU, 19-12 ATS last year) -- The Sun Devils lost their dynamic duo of James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph, and they are going to need to get contributions out of 6'10" center Eric Boateng, who may not be ready for it yet. Derek Glasser, the talented point guard, will have to hold things together for coach Herb Sendek, but there is no tournament action in their forecast.
CALIFORNIA (+300 – 22-11 SU, 16-14 ATS last year) -- Mike Montgomery's first season at Berkeley resulted in an NCAA tournament spot, and his team's "bombs away" attitude produced 42.7% in three-point shots, which was best in the Pac-10. There are scorers all over, including a trio of sizzling seniors in Jerome Randle (18.3 ppg), Patrick Christopher (14.5 ppg) and Theo Robertson (13.1 ppg). There's a tradeoff with all this outside shooting, and that is that this team doesn't operate well in the paint. Hey, they are what they are, and it might be plenty good to win this league.
OREGON (+1200 – 8-23 SU, 9-21 ATS last year) -- Things were nightmarish at times as many freshmen got their chance in Eugene last year, and the team finished 8-23. Now they'll reap the benefits of that experience. Michael Dunigan, the 6'10" center from Chicago, is the best of that group, although Tajuan Porter (15.4 ppg) is the guy who is the senior leader. He's not the point guard, so it may be up to another freshman, Malcolm Armstead. We'll see if Ernie Kent's crew has learned its lessons well.
OREGON STATE (+1000 – 18-18 SU, 16-14-1 ATS last year) -- This is where the remarkable turnaround took place last year. The Beavers went from being a team with an 0-18 Pac-10 record to a 7-11 mark, but more noteworthy was their sweep to the championship in the post-season CBI. Only guard Ricky Claitt was lost from that team. Now they have depth, a proven system, and the best set of recruits they've had in years. An NCAA berth is not out of their sights, and if they continue to improve, they may be a value at this price.
STANFORD (+2000 – 20-14 SU, 18-13-1 ATS last year) -- The Cardinal lost a lot of veteran talent, including Anthony Goods and Lawrence Hill, and they will rely heavily on Landry Fields, who averaged 12.6 ppg last year. That may not be enough to keep Johnny Dawkins' team out of the conference cellar.
UCLA (+250 – 26-9 SU, 16-16-2 ATS last year) -- Ben Howland always seems to put together a winning combination, but this year it will be quite a challenge. A lot of talent departs, and there are plenty of new people in the fold. Nine players are in their first or second year of college ball. There are a couple of senior leaders - Nikola Dragovic, a 6'9" forward, and Michael Roll, a 6'5" guard, are both good shooters. The go-to guy may be Drew Gordon, a sophomore who was a big recruit when he got to Westwood, and will get a lot more playing time. He'll have to.
USC (+3000 – 22-13 SU, 18-15 ATS last year) -- Demar DeRozan was a "one-and-done" case. Tim Floyd was just done, as he left the program under a cloud of scandal. Kevin O'Neill is the new coach, and he'll use Dwight Lewis (14.4 ppg) as the main cog in his offense. Alex Stephenson, a transfer from North Carolina, will be counted on to fill one frontcourt spot. Things may get bad enough that Percy Miller, aka "Lil' Romeo," the rapper and son of Master P, might actually get some playing time.
WASHINGTON (+500 – 26-9 SU, 19-12-1 ATS last year) -- The Huskies (78.6 ppg, first in the Pac-10) got to the second round of the NCAA's, but Jon Brockman must be replaced, and that's not going to be easy. Maybe the guy who'll do it is athletic Matthew Bryan-Amaning, a 6'9", 235-pound UK native. It is the backcourt that is the dynamic part of this U-Dub unit. Isaiah Thomas was fabulous as a freshman, averaging 15.5 points, and he's going to be joined by big recruit Abdul Gaddy, along with Venoy Overton. This is once again going to be a very up-tempo team, even more so without Brockman.
WASHINGTON STATE (+1500 – 17-16 SU, 12-19 ATS last year) -- Ken Bone arrives from Portland State to replace departed coach Tony Bennett. Bone may turn up the volume a little on this deliberate style that was able to limit opponents to 55.4 points a game. The Cougars will probably shoot more threes this year, but really, they have to find reliable scoring outlets. Perhaps Klay Thompson, the 6'6" forward and son of former #1 NBA draft choice Mychal Thompson, ramps up his game. This shapes up as a tough transition year for this program.
