posted October 21, 2009 at 15:45 EST in NCAA B Articles
NCAA Basketball Futures - Odds to Win the Big 10
by Charles Jay
Here's our capsule preview of the upcoming Big Ten basketball season, but first let's look at the odds at BetUS Sportsbook on each of the teams, keeping in mind that the team that is the #1 seed for the conference tourney (in other words, the regular season champion, not the tournament champion) will be the one that pays.
To Win Big 10 Championship
- Illinois +1200
- Indiana +2000
- Iowa +3000
- Michigan +500
- Michigan State +175
- Minnesota +1000
- Northwestern +2000
- Ohio State +500
- Penn State +1500
- Purdue +200
- Wisconsin +1200
Let's take them one by one:
ILLINOIS (+1200 at BetUS – 24-10 SU, 16-14-1 ATS last year) -- The Fighting Illini is strong up front with 6'9" forward Mike Davis and seven-footer Mike Tisdale, and in Demetri McCarney they have one of the best point guards in the Big Ten. They are probably wondering whether Alex Legion, who came to Champaign with a lot of pomp and circumstance as a transfer out of Kentucky, will live up to his press clippings. Guard DJ Richardson heads up a very strong recruiting class, and if that class produces, Bruce Weber could have the true darkhorse in the conference on his hands.
INDIANA (+2000 at BetUS – 6-25 SU, 12-16 ATS last year) -- The newcomers are the story in Bloomington. Junior guard Jeremiah Rivers, the son of Celtics coach Doc Rivers, comes from Georgetown and will unquestionably be the defensive leader. Prize guard recruits also include Jordan Hulls and Maurice Creek. There are, in fact, lots of guards - you can add holdovers Verdell Jones and Devan Dumes to that mix - but the up-front strength is not there.
IOWA (+3000 at BetUS – 15-17 SU, 16-11 ATS last year) -- Four players quit the team at the end of last season, including starting guards Jake Kelly and Jeff Peterson. I guess they didn't like Todd Lickliter's approach. The former Butler coach is not getting results with his low-octane offense (60.2 ppg - last in the Big Ten). With very little useful size, the cellar is very possible.
MICHIGAN (+500 at BetUS – 21-14 SU, 17-12-1 ATS last year) -- John Beilein turned this team around in his second year. The Wolverines lost to Oklahoma in the second round of the NCAA tourney, and they bring back the top five scorers. Manny Harris, the All-America candidate, is the key guy, but he sometimes plays out of control. There are a lot of complementary people, including DeShawn Sims, who is a tower of strength inside.
MICHIGAN STATE (+175 at BetUS – 31-7 SU, 21-14 ATS last year) -- The Spartans rate the favorite's role, of course, because they went all the way to the NCAA title game, and return the Big Ten's top player in Kalin Lucas, perhaps the #1 point guard in the country. Also, there's Raymar Morgan, a talented wing who can be a true difference-maker. But is Delvon Roe over his knee problems enough to become the major contributor he's supposed to be? Sure, Goran Suton is gone, and that's a possible blow to this team's +9 rebound margin, but Tom Izzo know how to get there; he's been to five Final Fours in 14 years.
MINNESOTA (+1000 at BetUS – 22-11 SU, 13-15 ATS last year) -- The Gophers lose no one from a team that made it into the NCAA tournament, losing to Texas. They've got the top nine scorers back, and plenty of balance, not to mention some strong recruits like small forward prospects Royce White and Rodney Williams. The backcourt is going to be in fine shape, with Lawrence Westbrook, Al Nolen and Devoe Joseph. Once again, Tubby Smith is turning a program around.
NORTHWESTERN (+2000 at BetUS – 17-14 SU, 14-13 ATS last year) -- Slow, slow, slow. The deliberate Wildcats actually got to the NIT last year, which is a big accomplishment for coach Bill Carmody. Northwestern beat a top ten team - Michigan State - on the road last season, and that was the first time they had accomplished such a feat in 56 years. Kevin Coble (15.5 ppg) is one of the best players in the Big Ten, and the 'Cats get great leadership from point guard Michael Thompson, a three-year starter. When this Princeton-style offense gets hot from beyond the arc (38.6% last year), then look out.
OHIO STATE (+500 at BetUS – 22-11 SU, 17-12 ATS last year) -- The Buckeyes, who lost to Siena in the NCAA tournament, bring back a balanced roster, which includes a genuine star player in Evan Turner (17.3 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and another one who could soon be one. William Buford had a very nice freshman season and could rocket into the league's elite as a soph. Again, Ohio State lost a one-and-done center when BJ Mullens departed. They don't have any real recruits to replace him with, but transfer Zisis Sarikopoulos, a seven-footer from Greece by way of UAB, is eligible now.
PENN STATE (+1500 at BetUS – 27-11 SU, 19-12 ATS last year) -- All the Nittany Lions did was win the NIT last year, but two of the team's "Big Three" moved on - Jamelle Cornley and Stanley Pringle. The good news is that Talor Battle (16.7 ppg), the 5'11" point guard, is back, and he is good enough to rival Kalin Lucas for an All-Big Ten spot. With problems elsewhere, however, the Lions will be hard-pressed to do better than another NIT slot.
PURDUE (+200 at BetUS – 27-10 SU, 16-18 ATS last year) -- This team, which made the Sweet 16 last year, has versatility, balance and defense going for it. The Boilermakers have perhaps the best frontcourt duo in the conference in JaJuan Johnson and Robbie Hummel, who is a guy with multi-varied talents. E'Twain Moore (13.8 ppg) is complemented by defensive demon Chris Kramer in the backcourt. This is a very worthy challenger to Michigan State in the conference race, and I think they may be the winner.
WISCONSIN (+1200 at BetUS – 20-13 SU, 13-17-1 ATS last year) -- The Badgers weren't so horrible, but they went into a slump in mid-season that dealt them out of the race last year. Bo Ryan is usually pretty good at keeping this team alive, but he'll have a difficult time doing it this season. He lost some experience with Marcus Landry and Joe Krabbenhoft's departure, and they'll have a void on the boards. The strength of this team is the veteran backcourt of Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon. This team will once again be solid, but nothing spectacular.
