NBA Finals Parlay: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Orlando Magic

Game-day: 6/9/2009

Tip-off: 9:00 pm est.

The Lakers go into Orlando on Tuesday night with a 2 to 0 lead in the best of seven NBA Finals Series. L.A. needed overtime to put away the Magic on Sunday night and did so only after Magic rookie Courtney Lee missed what looked like an easy lay-up with .6 seconds left.

Can Orlando take the fact that they almost won on the road straight-up against the Lakers into Game 3 of this series and use it to cover a 4 point spread?

Let’s analyze the parlay for Game 3 of the NBA Finals.

NBA Finals: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Orlando Magic

Point Spread: Orlando Magic -4

BetUS Total: 198

Analysis: The Orlando Magic haven’t really played that well so far in this series. A lot of it has to do with the defensive schemes that the Los Angeles Lakers are running. When the most physically dominant player in basketball, Dwight Howard, is held to less than 20 points in two straight games, you know that your defense is doing a good job.

But even with Howard having another sub par game, the Magic were able to tie the Lakers in the fourth quarter and had a chance to win the game at the end of regulation. That’s something that the Magic has to take to heart. They also allowed the Lakers to shoot 46% from the field.

Even though they shot 41%, Orlando still had a chance to win the game. So, if the Magic can shoot better than 33% from behind the arc and better than 41% from the field, they should cover ATS.

I believe that will happen. In fact, don’t be surprised if Orlando shoots somewhere around 45% from both the field and from behind the arc in Game 3.

The Magic to cover is the first part of the parlay.

Now, the hard part. How many points will both of these teams combine for in Game 3? The total ended up at 198 in Game 2 and now becomes the total for Game 3. Both games have gone under.

The old adage that defenses become important in the playoffs might be true as neither the Magic nor the Lakers have done much with the basketball scoring wise early on in either game.

I have to stick with that trend because even though Orlando will shoot better from both behind the arc and the field, they should be more judicious with their shots.

Same goes with the Lakers who will be trying to slow the game down on their opponent’s home court.

I’m going under.

Pick: Orlando Magic at -4 to under the BetUS Total of 198.