posted November 4, 2009 at 18:00 EST in NBA Free Picks
NBA Lock Alert – Paul and the Hornets Host Streaking Mavericks
The division rival Dallas Mavericks (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 0-4 O/U) and New Orleans Hornets (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U) are heading in opposite directions heading into tonight’s contest at New Orleans Arena tonight at 9:30 PM ET.
The Mavs have won three straight games since losing their regular season opener at home and handled the Utah Jazz convincingly on Tuesday night, winning 96-85 to cover the NBA point spread as 6-point home favorites while the game’s final score played Under the 203-point O/U total.
Dirk Nowitzki scored a franchise-record 29 points in the fourth quarter and 40 points overall, while adding 11 rebounds and five blocks to lead the Mavericks to victory.
Chris Paul led New Orleans with a team-high 32 points and 13 assists, but the Hornets lost to the New York Knicks 117-111 on Monday night, failing to cover the NBA point spread as 3-point road favorites just as I predicted while the game’s 228 combined points played OVER the 202.5-point O/U total.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends and NBA Betting Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert NBA Picks.
- Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Southwest.
- Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
- Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
- Hornets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.
- Hornets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
- Hornets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Hornets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
- Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in New Orleans.
NBA Odds
Dallas Mavericks +4 Points
Over/Under 189½ Points
Analysis: The New Orleans Hornets are clearly not the teams they used to be two years ago (56-26 SU) and have even taken a step backwards from the mediocre ballclub that went 49-33 last season as they have gotten off to a terrible start while saddling all-star point guard Chris Paul with far too much responsibility to do everything but sell popcorns in the stands.
While the Mavericks have gone a dismal 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings in New Orleans, I like Dallas to cover the spread with the outright road win this contest.
The Mavericks have gone an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six games against NBA Southwest Division teams while also going 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a losing SU record.
The New Orleans Hornets have gone a disappointing 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against Western Conference opponents and 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning SU record.
While the Hornets are averaging a respectable 97.8 points per game this season, they are also allowing a whopping 104.8 points per contest defensively. New Orleans has also gone 1-5 ATS in their last six home games and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.
The Under has gone a consistent 5-2 in the last seven meetings and I like the Under to play out again in this matchup.
Take the Mavericks for the outright road win along with the Under in the NBA parlay pick.
