posted November 4, 2009 at 17:08 EST in MLB Free Picks
World Series Game 6 - Living Legends on the Mound
by Charles Jay
Wednesday, November 4 - 7:57 PM ET
BetUS MLB betting odds: Yankees -210, Phillies +175, Total 9
BetUS Series price: Yankees -800, Phillies +500
The Yankees will have southpaw Andy Pettitte (17-8, 4.06 ERA) on the hill tonight, while Pedro Martinez (5-2, 3.28 ERA) gets the start for the Phillies.
Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
- PHIL has won eight of its last 12 games
- PHIL has played six of its last eight games OVER the total
- PHIL has won five of its last seven road games
- PHIL has played eight of its last 11 road games OVER the total
- NY has won 11 of its last 15 games
- NY has played six of its last nine games SOVER the total
- NY has won six of its last seven home games
- NY has played its last nine home games UNDER the total
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD BetUS sports betting trends:
- The last three meetings have gone OVER the total
- Nine of the last 13 meetings have gone UNDER the total
- The last five meetings in the Bronx have gone UNDER the total
Does Joe Girardi over-manage his bullpen? Sure he does. Either you have pitchers on your roster who can get guys out or you don't. If you don't, you ask the Steinbrenner Family to go out and buy some. There really is no need to use six or seven pitchers in a game unless you're just concerned about letting people know that you, one of the lowest-salaried guys in the dugout, are still there. Really, all he has to do is wave at the Fox cameras every once in a while. Heck, they even talk to the manager between innings these days. Starter to "setup guy" to closer. It's pretty simple.
That having been said, let's not confuse that kind of over-managing with actual strategizing.
I've been reading some of the New York sportswriters who point out that the reason the Yankees have so many of those meetings on the mound, not just with manager Joe Girardi and pitching coach Dave Eiland, but with infielders and catchers (and, well, I think they would call in Johnny Damon from left field if they thought it would do any good) is that they all "want to be on the same page in critical situations." Yes, there is something to that, and if you've noticed, the other team has seemingly always been the one to make a mistake. That has been the difference between the Yankees and the teams they have beaten to get here, and it was the difference back in Game 5, when Johnny Damon, in the process of stealing two bases on one play, caught a Phillies' defense that had gone to sleep (first by ordering a ridiculous "shift," then by not having anyone to cover third).
Let's talk about one bit of managerial derring-do that could backfire, and send us to an all-or-nothing encounter.
I don't want to go all the way back in history, but I can tell you that not once has Andy Pettitte made a start this season on less than four days' rest, and frequently he's had a lot more. Don't think that won't be a factor in Game 6, although there is a stat, of recent creation, that suggests in the minds of many that it won't be.
People keep referring to Pettitte as the "winningest pitcher in post-season history" and of course technically that's true, but don't make the mistake of thinking he's the best. Surely he has done a very good job, on very good teams, but I think you know that there are quite a few pitchers in the history of baseball who would have easily posted 20 "post-season" wins had they been situated in a time when they played in a Divisional Series and a Championship Series, in addition to a World Series. I'm not going to go through the whole list; just take a look at the Baseball Hall of Fame's website.
Oh, and speaking of the Hall of Fame, Pedro Martinez is one of the guys who's going to have a plaque there (as Andy Pettitte is paying admission to see it), after making an induction speech (which Andy Pettitte might get himself invited to) and this is the biggest game he has ever pitched in his life.
It is bigger than the games he pitched for the Red Sox in the post-season, because he is in the process of rehabilitating himself in the minds of all those general managers who didn't think he was worth taking a chance on, while all those "younger arms" who consider an ERA under 5.00 to be serviceable and who made the multi-millions got the call ahead of him, and in the minds of those sportswriters who still don't believe he has made it back to being a major league starting pitcher who deserves to be in somebody's rotation for long.
It's bigger than those other games because it is here, and now.
The fact that Martinez, who had pitched himself out of the majors with injuries and ineffectiveness, has managed to do what he's done thus far should tell you something about him, and what he's about to do tonight. He was a notch or two above adequate after coming back to the game with the Phils; just enough to demonstrate that he belonged once again. Since the playoffs began, he has allowed three runs and just ten base runners in 13 innings, striking out eleven, walking two.
His team has scored exactly two runs for him, but is that his fault? Look at what counts here - a 2.08 ERA and 0.77 ERA, in situations where he risked getting stale, sitting for fifteen and twelve days, respectively, between starts, and all of this without a fastball.
Can we do an "oh, by the way" here? Okay, oh by the way, he has a 3.22 ERA and 1.072 WHIP ratio in the post-season, both figures markedly better than Pettitte, who probably won some of his games on steroids.
Do not count out a great pitcher, especially when he's getting a ridiculous +175 price against a merely good pitcher. We're on Pedro and the Phillies as the underdog in the BetUS Major League Baseball World Series betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: PHILADELPHIA (+175) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
