World Series Game 1 Pick - Phillies vs. Yankees

Wednesday, October 28 - 7:55 PM ET

BetUS MLB betting odds: Yankees -170, Phillies +150, Total 7.5

Cliff Lee, last year's American League Cy Young winner (16-13, 2.99 ERA), will take the hill for the Phillies, while CC Sabathia (22-8, 3.17 ERA), who won the AL Cy Young two years ago, is the starter for the Yankees. Both are lefties.

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• PHIL has won six of its last seven games
• PHIL has played six of its last seven games OVER the total
• PHIL has won four of its last five road games
• PHIL has played eight of its last nine road games OVER the total
• NY has won eight of its last ten games
• NY has played six of its last nine games UNDER the total
• NY has won eleven of its last 12 home games
• NY has played its last seven home games UNDER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD sports betting trends:

• Seven of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Four of the last five meetings in the Bronx have gone UNDER the total

When you consider that the starters in the first game of the World Series - Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia - both won Cy Young awards and won them with the Cleveland Indians, it kind of highlights what kind of damage Cleveland management has done with that team. In five of his last six starts, Sabathia has held his opponent to one run or less, setting things up very nicely for the Yankee bullpen, which has gone from being a weak spot to a genuine strength. In only one of Sabathia's last 15 starts has the Yankees lost.

Cliff Lee's run has paralleled Sabathia's in a sense, because like CC last year, he was a reigning Cy Young winner who went from Cleveland to the National League and helped a team to a playoff spot, pitching lights out most of the time. Of course, some things were a little different. Lee started out like a house afire, with an 0.68 ERA in his first five starts for the Phils, then went through a bit of a lull before finishing strongly. In the playoffs he has allowed just two earned runs and 14 hits in 24-1/3 innings. Since the beginning of last season, he has started three games against the Yankees, and allowed four runs in 19 innings.

This is a game, and a series, which pits the NL's best road team (48-33 in the regular season) against the best home squad in the AL (the Yankees were 57-24 in the Bronx).

Ryan Howard has had 198 homers and 572 RBI's over the last four seasons, but he has been a mere mortal against left-handers. In fact, he's been less than that. In 935 career at-bats against southpaws, which constitute about 35% of his total at-bats, he has hit only 24% of his career homers. He has only a .226 career average against left-handed pitching, and a .207 average this year, with six homers in 222 at-bats. He's whiffed 37% of the time.

What we're trying to illustrate is that the biggest game-changer the Phillies have could be a non-factor, for as long as Sabathia is in the game. And unfortunately for him and the Phillies, Sabathia has been staying in the game, going seven innings or more in ten of the last 13 starts. After that, he hands it to Mariano Rivera and there is a good chance that the light gets turned off from there. If not, then somebody like Damaso Marte could see action, and Marte held left-handed hitters to a .120 average during the regular season (including 0-for-3 from Howard).