posted July 2, 2009 at 20:01 EST in MLB Free Picks
Take the UNDER - Orioles at Angels
The Los Angeles Angels (42-34 SU, 40-33-3 O/U, 41-35 RL) will be looking to snap their modest two-game losing streak in the BetUS Sportsbook when they battle the Baltimore Orioles (35-43 SU, 40-35-3 O/U, 38-40 RL) at Angel Stadium tonight at 10 PM ET.
The Orioles were defeated 6-5 by the Boston Red Sox in 11 innings on Wednesday, failing to cash in for BetUS MLB sports betting members as +135 underdogs while the game's 11 total runs played Over the posted over/under (9).
Nick Markakis hit a two-run single for Baltimore in the loss.
The Angels dropped their second consecutive game on Wednesday, losing to the Texas Rangers 9-7 as a -105 pick'em while the game's 16 combined runs played Over the 9.5-run O/U total.
Juan Rivera belted a three-run homer for the Angels in a losing effort.
Tonight, the Orioles will hand the ball to right-hander Jeremy Guthrie (6-7, 5.11 ERA) while the Angels counter with staff ace right-hander John Lackey (2-3, 5.06 ERA).
Lackey limited the Arizona Diamondbacks to one unearned run on five hits – all singles - in seven innings while striking out nine batters in a 2-1 win on Saturday.
Guthrie looks to win his third straight start after giving up three runs on five hits in five innings in Saturday's 6-3 win over Washington.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.
The Orioles are 27-56 in their last 83 games as an underdog.
The Orioles are 16-36 in their last 52 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Orioles are 3-7 in Guthrie’s last 10 Thursday starts.
The Orioles are 4-10 in Guthrie’s last 14 starts.
The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
The Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
The Angels are 25-12 in Lackey’s last 37 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Angels are 0-5 in Lackey’s last 5 home starts.
The Under is 5-1 in Guthrie’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
The Under is 5-1 in Guthrie’s last 6 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Under is 6-1 in Lackey’s last 7 starts as a home favorite.
The Under is 6-1 in Lackey’s last 7 home starts.
The Angels are 4-0 in Lackeys last 4 home starts vs. Orioles.
The Under is 4-0 in Lackeys last 4 starts vs. Orioles.
The Angels are 4-1 in Lackeys last 5 starts vs. Orioles.
The Orioles are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings.
The Orioles are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
Baltimore Orioles +1 ½ -150
Jeremy Guthrie –R +135
Los Angeles Angels -1 ½ +130
John Lackey –R -155
Over 9 -120
Under 9 Ev
Analysis: Despite losing consecutive games coming into this contest, the Los Angeles Angels are the easy pick in this contest BetUS MLB sports betting members as they have won 14 of the last 19 home games against the Orioles dating back to 2005.
The Angels had also won six straight prior to their modest two-game skid and should be encouraged by Lackey’s recent outings after starting the season on the disabled list as he has posted a solid 2.86 ERA over his last three starts while going 1-1.
The Orioles may not go down easily however as Jeremy Guthrie has been terrific lately, going 2-1 with a 3.44 ERA over his last three starts.
Still, I say MLB bettors should back the Angels here as they have gone 4-0 in their last four home games versus a team with a losing record, 6-0 in their last six games against a team with a losing record and an impressive 25-12 in John Lackey’s last 37 starts against a team with a losing record.
While the Angels are a pitiful 0-5 in Lackey’s last five home starts, I say they snap that skid behind the talented right-hander in this contest tonight by handing the mediocre Orioles an emphatic loss.
Los Angeles has recorded a bankroll-boosting 19-7 in Lackeys last 26 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and an equally impressive 28-11 in Lackeys last 39 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.
The Under also looks very strong for this contest, going 6-1 in Lackey’s last seven home starts, 4-0 in Lackey’s last four home starts against the Orioles and 5-1 in Guthrie’s last six starts with four days of rest.
MLB Free Picks: Los Angeles Angels -1½ Runs/Under 9 Total Runs
