posted November 2, 2009 at 19:02 EST in MLB Free Picks
MLB World Series Betting - New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The New York Yankees (113-62 SU, 97-77 RL, 81-84-9 O/U) are nearing their intended destination as 2009 MLB World Series champions. The Philadelphia Phillies (101-74 SU, 89-83 RL, 79-85-8 O/U) will try to stave off elimination for at least one more game when they take the field for Game 5 tonight at Citizens Bank Park tonight at 8:00 PM ET.
The Yankees took a commanding 3-1 series lead by handing Philadelphia a convincing 7-4 defeat in Game 4 as Johnny Damon and Alex Rodriguez stunned the Phillies in the ninth inning with a double-steal by Damon and a run-scoring double by Rodriguez.
Tonight, the Yankees will hand the ball to right-hander A.J. Burnett (14-9, 3.99 ERA) while the Phillies counter with overpowering left-hander Cliff Lee (2-0, 0.37 ERA).
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends and MLB Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert MLB Free Picks.
- Yankees are 7- 0 in their last 7 interleague road games.
- Yankees are 8- 1 in their last 9 interleague games.
- Yankees are 6- 1 in Burnett’s last 7 starts.
- Phillies are 4- 0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Phillies are 11- 1 in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite.
- Phillies are 4- 0 in Lees last 4 starts.
- Phillies are 5- 0 in Lees last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 4- 0 in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.
- Under is 8- 3 in the last 11 meetings.
MLB Odds
- New York Yankees +1½ -160
- A.J. Burnett –R -135
- Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +140
- Cliff Lee –L -155
- Over 8½ Ev
- Under 8½ -120
The Starters: A.J. Burnett has gone 1-0 over his last three starts with a 4.19 ERA while Cliff Lee has gone 2-0 with a microscopic 0.37 ERA over his last three starts.
Analysis: I genuinely believe the Philadelphia Phillies are ‘toast’ in this series (that’s right, they’re done) but I think Philadelphia has one more win in them and will get bit tonight behind outstanding left-handed staff ace Cliff Lee who has already dominated the Yankees once in this series while leading Philadelphia to a convincing 6-1 win on Game 1.
While tonight’s starter for New York was also dominant in his only series start so far, leading New York to a 3-1 win in Game 2 by allowing just one earned run in seven solid innings, I like the Phils to get to Burnett tonight and put up just enough runs on the board to win this contest.
The Yankees however, likely won’t go away quietly as they’ve gone a blistering 7- 0 in their last seven interleague road games, 8- 1 in their last nine interleague games and a stellar 6- 1 in Burnett’s last seven starts.
Nevertheless, I’m taking the Phillies to win this ballgame on the strength of the nearly unhittable Cliff Lee.
Philadelphia has gone a perfect 4- 0 in their last four games as a favorite, 11- 1 in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite and an unblemished 4- 0 in Lee’s last four starts, not to mention an equally impressive 5- 0 in Lee’s last five starts versus a team with a winning record .
While the Yankees have gone 4- 0 in the last four meetings in Philadelphia, I say Lee snaps that streak tonight with an emphatic win while the Under (8- 3 in the last 11 meetings) plays out for avid BetUS MLB online betting enthusiasts.
Take the Phillies and the Under in Game 5 tonight.
