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posted July 3, 2009 at 10:45 EST in MLB Free Picks

Friday MLB Play - Mariners at Red Sox

Bookmark and Share by Charles Jay

BetUS MLB betting matchup :

It's an evening for right-handers, with Felix Hernandez (8-3, 2.54 ERA) of the Mariners opposing knuckleballer Tim Wakefield of the Red Sox (10-3, 4.18 ERA).

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* SEA has won seven of its last 11 games

* SEA has played 11 of its last 16 games UNDER the total

* SEA has lost four of its last six road games

* SEA has played eight of its last ten road games UNDER the total

* BOS has won eight of its last 11 games

* BOS has played four of its last six games UNDER the total

* BOS has won seven of its last nine home games

* BOS has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD sports betting trends:

* BOS has won six of the last eight meetings

* Nine of the last 12 meetings have gone UNDER the total

* BOS has won 15 of the last 20 meetings as the road team

* Eight of the last 13 meetings in Boston have gone UNDER the total

The Red Sox have known all season that they're in a race, and through Wednesday's games they were 2.5 games ahead of the Yankees in the American League East. They had the second best record in all of baseball, right behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, and with a 6-5 victory over the Orioles on Wednesday, they had done a good job of bouncing back from a major disappointment. On Tuesday night, they got out to a nine-run lead against Baltimore, as it looked like John Smoltz was going to pick up his first major league win in 438 days. The O's mounted the biggest comeback in their history, however, scoring five runs in the seventh inning and five more in the eighth, and come away with an 11-10 victory.

Seattle is within striking distance in the AL West. The Mariners began Thursday's play just 3.5 games behind the Los Angeles Angels. One thing that has hamstrung the M's a little is that they have not scored a lot of runs; they are last in the AL in scoring, and next to last in scoring on the road (3.9 runs a game). Pitching has obviously kept them afloat, and one of those outstanding hurlers has been Felix Hernandez, who went from a 14-7 record in 2007 to a 9-11 mark last year despite a drop in ERA (from 3.92 to 3.45). This season he is on track for his lowest ERA figure ever, and it has been propelled by a 0.85 ERA in his last seven starts. His last outing was a scoreless eight innings against the Dodgers, at Chavez Ravine, on June 27. He has given up 38 hits in his last 53 innings.

Tim Wakefield may be on track for an All-Star berth, as his ten wins are tied with Zach Greinke and Kevin Slowey for the American League lead. Wakefield made two starts against Seattle in 2008, giving up three earned runs and ten hits in 15 innings. He struck out 14 batters and walked only two. The Red Sox have won his last five starts, and he was outstanding in the last one, going six scoreless innings against the Braves, surrendering only three hits.

Boston has the best home record in the majors (25-10) and that obviously counts for something. But they'll be laying a considerable price, and with the red-hot Hernandez on the hill, the Mariners figure to stay right in the game, enough that grabbing the underdog in the BetUS American League baseball betting odds makes some sense.

JAY'S PLAY: SEATTLE *

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)