posted October 15, 2009 at 16:58 EST in MLB Articles
NLCS Betting Preview - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Philadelphia Phillies (96-70 SU, 84-80 RL, 73-83-8 O/U) and Los Angeles Dodgers (98-67 SU, 79-85 RL, 72-79-13 O/U) will square off in the National League Championship Series for the second consecutive season, although some things have changed quite a bit for both ballclubs coming into this year’s showdown.
This in-depth analysis and series prediction, will give avid MLB online betting enthusiasts all the insight they need to make a winning wager on both, the final outcome of the series, and its individual games.
With that thought in mind – and the first pitch for this series not far from being thrown – let me get down to the business at hand.
Phillies
With their prolific batting order, the Phillies led the National League in home runs for the second consecutive season with a franchise-record, 224 long balls. Philadelphia Phillies is also trying to become Major League Baseball’s first repeat World Series champions since the New York Yankees last accomplished the feat, winning three consecutive World Series titles from 1998-2000.
No NL team has won consecutive World Series titles since the famed Cincinnati Reds ‘Big Red Machine’ teams accomplished the feat way back in 1975 and 1976 with the New York Giants being the only other NL team to win consecutive World Series championships back in 1921 and 1922.
Dodgers
The Dodgers led the National League in wins this season, ranking third in home victories, but were helped out by the fact that they play in the mediocre NL West where San Diego and Arizona ranked in the bottom five teams in all of baseball this season.
Offense
Philadelphia batted a collective .258 this season, ranking just 21st in the majors while L.A. hit a stellar .270 as a team, ranking fourth in the big leagues this season.
However, Philadelphia laced 312 doubles and a National League-best 224 home runs, (second overall) while the Dodgers hit 278 team doubles but just 145 home runs.
Philadelphia averaged 5.1 runs per game this season, tops in the NL while L.A. put up 4.8 runs per contest, fourth in the National League.
The Phillies had four players (Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez and Jayson Werth) hit at least 30 home runs while seeing the same quartet all drive in at least 90 runs.
Like Philadelphia, L.A. didn’t have a single player with over 500 at-bats reach the magical .300 batting average and saw just one player (Andre Ethier) reach 30 home runs and just two players (Ethier, Matt Kemp) drive in 100 runs, though it must be noted that Manny Ramirez would have likely reached both marks had he not been forced to sit out 50 games because of a league-mandated drug suspension.
While Ethier led the major leagues with six walk-off hits and four walk-off home runs during the regular season, he also struggled mightily against left-handed pitchers, batting just .194 with six home runs and 25 RBI in 165 at-bats against southpaw hurlers.
No matter, Philadelphia is clearly the better hitting ballclub here.
Edge: Philadelphia
Defense
Los Angeles Dodgers was the best defensive team in the NL during the regular season, allowing just 3.8 runs per contest on an average of 7.8 hits per game while Philadelphia gave up an average of 4.4 runs per game on 9.1 hits per contest. L.A. did average 3.6 walks and 7.9 strikeouts per outing while Philadelphia gave up just 3.0 walks per contest while averaging 7.1 K’s per night. The edge isn’t much here, but it goes to L.A.
Edge: Los Angeles
Starting Pitching
Philadelphia had four double-digit winners amongst their starting staff this season, not counting left-hander Cliff Lee who did win 14 games while splitting time with Cleveland and Philadelphia.
Rookie left-hander JA Happ went a stellar 12-4 this season, with a team-leading 2.93 ERA while Lee has gone 7-4 with a solid 3.39 ERA for Philadelphia after being traded to the city of ‘Brotherly Shove’ just prior to the annual trade deadline.
While 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels has struggled for much of the season after being beset with injuries early on, if he can show the form that helped him beat L.A. in last season’s NLCS in games 1 and 5, the Phillies will have a huge edge in this category.
Los Angeles had three double-digit win starters – and like Philadelphia – just one starter with an ERA under 3.00 (Clayton Kershaw). However, L.A. got a huge boost by adding veteran flamethrower, Vicente Padilla after he wore out his welcome with the Texas Rangers. Padilla went 4-0 for the Dodgers with a solid 3.20 ERA down the stretch.
Chad Billingsley (12-11), Jon Garland (11-13) and Randy Wolf (11-7) are solid if not overpowering.
Edge: Philadelphia
Bullpen
Philadelphia ’s bullpen is mostly mediocre outside of closer Brad Lidge, who recently returned to his old form and recorded 31 saves with 11 blown saves during the regular season. Veteran, Scott Eyre is solid while veteran starter Pedro Martinez could be a huge factor if Philadelphia decides to use him out of the bullpen during this series.
The Dodgers clearly have the better bullpen of the two teams in this matchup, starting with closer Jonathan Broxton and his fine 2.61 ERA. Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill are fantastic setup men that are clearly better than Philadelphia’s counterparts, Ryan Madson and Eyre.
If the game is tied and gets handed off to relief pitchers in the later innings, the Dodgers will almost undoubtedly have the edge here.
Edge: Dodgers
Analysis: While the Dodgers won the regular season series 4-3, I genuinely believe that, if the age-old adage that says ‘good pitching beats god hitting,’ then the Philadelphia Phillies are the correct pick to win this series and advance here with three fantastic left-handed starters in Hamels, Lee and Happ.
While L.A.’s Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley and Vicente Padilla are also solid starting pitchers, I’m just not sure if they can matchup with Philly’s aforementioned trio of Lee, Hamels and Happ.
With Philadelphia also having the more accomplished batting order by far, I say Philadelphia wins this series and advances to their second consecutive World Series BetUS MLB betting fanatics.
Prediction: Phillies in 6
NLCS Series Odds
Philadelphia Phillies Ev
Los Angeles Dodgers -130
The Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers are both +350 to win the World Series in the BetUS MLB sports book.
