posted November 4, 2009 at 13:15 EST in MLB Articles
MLB World Series - A Case for the Philadelphia Phillies
by Charles Jay
It was suggested to me that it might be good subject matter to come up with an argument that the Philadelphia Phillies could come back to win the World Series.
This is a good exercise for, say, an aspiring lawyer, or a wannabe. I'm familiar with the territory; not the "wannabe" attorney territory but the territory where I purposely constructed an argument that I didn't necessarily believe in. I did it too well the first time. I set about making an argument that former heavyweight champion Jack Johnson should NOT get a presidential pardon (at the time it would have been from George W. Bush) and I worked so long and hard on it, and did so much research, that not only did I come to believe in the validity of my own argument, I got rather obsessed with it, and became pretty well-known for it.
So here goes:
Could the Phillies actually rally to win a dramatic seven-game verdict over the New York Yankees? Sure they could.
Okay, the easiest way, of course, is that we could have a bus mishap. No, no, no, not one where anyone gets killed or anything like that, but everyone gets one of those torn labrums or ACL's or something like that, forcing the Yankees had to go with their taxi squad. Somehow I couldn't see Ian Kennedy doing an acceptable impression of CC Sabathia.
Oh, you mean aside from that? Hmm, It's going to be tough.
First of all, I don't think for a minute anyone would, or should, discount the defending world champs, simply because they're the defending world champs.
One of the writers for the New York Post, Kevin Kernan, put it pretty well when he wrote, "The Phillies are the toughest opponent the Yankees have faced this season because they are not afraid of the Yankees. They are a cocky, successful team. They think they are better than the Yankees. They are the defending champs and have to be knocked off, so their thinking is justified."
Why wouldn't they feel it's justified? The Phillies had enough mental toughness to win 48 games on the road this season, which only happened to be tied for the best mark in the majors (with the Angels). How did the Angels do on the road at Yankee Stadium? Oops. We don't bolster our argument with that, do we?
The Yankees have lost home games on consecutive days only twice since May 8. The last time was September 11th and 12th when Baltimore beat them. Andy Pettitte and AJ Burnett were the starters in those two games.
Pettitte is scheduled to start Game 6 against Pedro Martinez.
I have to admit to being not to impressed with Pettitte, just on an overall basis. He's only good for six innings, so they're going to have to dip into that Yankee bullpen, which might have a residual effect if they have to be pressed into service in Game 7.
Pettitte, who's had an ERA of 4.00 or greater in most of the years he's been in the majors, has had the good fortune of being with some very good teams for virtually his whole career. Yes, he has more "post-season wins" (17) than anybody, but let's not get all goofy about that, since there have been a lot of pitchers who were a lot better who could only pitch in one post-season series a season (the World Series). His 3.88 ERA in the post-season is only slightly below his regular season ERA (3.91).
We are looking at a Game 6 Wednesday with a possible Game 7 on Thursday. That would mean CC Sabathia would pitch again as planned, and again with just three days of rest. I'm not sure this is the kind of thing you can do over and over in a short period of time with a lot of success. Sabathia spun a solid seven innings against the Phillies in Game 1, allowing just those two home runs to Chase Utley. In 6-2/3 frames on Sunday he yielded ten base runners and three earned runs, and his team was only able to pull off the win with three runs in the ninth.
There is no tomorrow, as many a manager will tell you, but there is also only so much the arm can take. This is not like the old days (well, at least "old" for most of you), when you just handed the ball to Bob Gibson or Tom Seaver or Juan Marichal or Sandy Koufax and told them to go nine innings. The pitchers today, by and large, are not conditioned for that much ironman stuff and they aren't expected to do it. We know that in a game between the best of one league and the best of another, one bad inning has the potential of dealing you out.
The guy who may have to bite the bullet is Cliff Lee, who has, we're told, never gone to the mound with three days rest in his entire career. What Charlie Manuel may have to do with his left-handed ace is tell him he needs just a few innings out of him. Then they have the rest of the pitching staff to take bits and pieces of the rest of the game because, as Manuel (who knows all the baseball cliches) will tell him, "You've got all winter to rest, son."
Lee may not need all that much convincing. "If it's going to help the team win, I'm in," he says.
If he doesn't start the finale, we'll see Cole Hamels, and that could be the clincher for my argument. He has hardly shown up for the post-season (16 runs in 19 innings), but then again, my little niece hasn't showed up either. You see, she and Cole are cousins, and every time she sat and watched him pitch last post-season, with autographed baseball card in hand, he won. She was scheduled to make her 2009 World Series debut on Saturday, but alas, trick-or-treating got in the way, and after that it was off to bed.
On Thursday, she will be working on four days of rest, just like he will, and she pledges to be in front of the big screen....."if necessary," as they say.
She says that if they can get it down to Ramiro Pena (33 career hits) for the last out, with everyone else on the Yankee bench having been used already, they'll be in good shape.
I think I'm convinced.
