posted November 3, 2009 at 15:28 EST in Horse Racing Free Picks
Breeders’ Cup: Summer Bird and Quality Road Look to Hook Up Again in the Classic
Race-day: 11/7/2009
Race-time: 6:45 pm EST
It’s more and more likely that the super mare, Zenyatta, will be in the gate when the horses go off and running in the 2009 Breeder’s Cup Classic.
Her work this Saturday was absolutely superb and her trainer, John Shirreffs, was talking like his star’s entrance into the Classic was a foregone conclusion. Should Zenyatta start in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, then there’s no doubt that she would go off as one of he favorites. The problem is that she will be trying two different things in the Classic. The first is running against males. The second is going 1 ¼ miles. Both could be tough obstacles for Zenyatta to overcome.
Let’s take a look at this Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Breeders’ Cup Classic
** Current odds listed in the BetUS online racebook
Santa Anita Park
Nov. 7th 6:45 pm EST
Summer Bird - - +500 current odds
At odds of 5 to 1 Summer Bird is a phenomenal overlay in the racebook. There’s just no other way to describe how good this three year old son of Birdstone has become other than to use the word “awesome”. Since getting thumped in the Kentucky Derby, where he went seven wide over the worst part of the Churchill Downs’ track that day, Summer Bird has been sensational.
He won the Belmont Stakes after early. Then, he came right back and finished 2nd to Rachel Alexandra in the slop in the Grade I Haskell Invitational. In the Travers’ Stakes he was amazing, dueling with Quality Road early, before prevailing by 3 ½ lengths. Finally, in his prep for the Classic, when Quality Road challenged him in the lane, he outdueled Quality Road again to record a 1 length victory in the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Summer Bird recorded the best speed rating of his career in the Jockey Gold Cup and figures to improve yet again in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He can lead, stalk, come from the clouds, whatever jockey Kent Desormeaux decides to do with him, he can do it. Forget about Summer Bird not liking the Pro-Ride surfaces. Good horses just run. That’s what Summer Bird is going to do on Saturday. He’s going to run to Classic glory.
Quality Road - - +900 current odds
I love to look for horses rounding into top form to win the Classic. Quality Road fits that profile and then some. Horseplayers shouldn’t forget that after his fantastic victory in the Grade I Florida Derby, Quality Road was being talked up as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Road missed that race because of an injury but has come back since with a vengeance.
In the Grade III Amsterdam, after a five month layoff, Road simply out ran his competition to record a 2 ½ lengths victory at 6 ½ furlongs. He bounced in the Travers’ Stakes but still finished 3rd by 5 lengths and then was awesome in the Jockey Gold cup when losing by only a length to Summer Bird. This guy is coming up to a huge, huge race and his class is unquestioned.
Quality Road can stalk which means that if Girolamo or Regal Ransom enters into the Classic, he can still win the race. If neither horse enters, he could be lone speed. Look past him at your own risk.
Twice Over - -+1200 current odds
Rip Van Winkle is the European that most horseplayers are jumping on in the Classic. It makes sense since Van Winkle is trained by Aidan O’Brian who saddled Henrythenavigator to a second place finish in the 2008 Breeder’s Cup Classic. But looking past this other European could prove detrimental to making profits on Breeders’ Cup day.
Twice Over is simply a very good horse having won the Grade I Emirates Airline Champions Stakes. Like Rip Van Winkle, Twice Over has never been on dirt nor an all weather surface, but unlike Rip Van Winkle, he’s actually bred to do well on dirt coming out of the Distant View sired Observatory. So, if he can translate his turf form to the Pro-Ride, he could be more dangerous than Rip Van Winkle to take down Summer Bird and Quality Road at much, much higher odds. He deserves a long shot’s chance in this race.
Richard’s Kid - - +1500 current odds
Sure, the Pacific Classic winner was running at the Optional Claiming $40,000 level back in January but that’s because his connections back then didn’t know what they had. This guy is a seriously well bred racehorse being sired by Lemon Drop Kid and coming out of a Broad Brush mare. He’s bred to be a champion and in the Pacific Classic, and the Goodwood Stakes, he ran like one. His third place finish in the Goodwood was a great race as he recorded the best speed rating of his life when losing by only a length. Richard’s Kid made up four lengths in the stretch in the Goodwood over the Santa Anita Pro-ride surface. That’s a sign that he loves the track.
Richard’s Kid has a turn of foot on par with either one of the European stars, Twice Over or Rip Van Winkle, and he might be a better closer than Zenyatta. He will need a quick pace up front, but if he gets it don’t discount this Bob Baffert trainee from firing a big one again, ala the P. Classic, and winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Zenyatta - - +400 current odds
I’d give her more of a shot in this if her odds weren’t so short. I mean, 4 to 1 is tough to take on any horse in the Classic much less a mare that hasn’t raced against males before and hasn’t gone 1 ¼ miles before. The problem with Zenyatta is that she’s been letting some seriously mediocre races horses, like Annaba’s Creation and Lethal Heat, stick with her in her recent races. To me, it’s a sign that she’s on the downturn of a fantastic career ala Curlin in the 2008 BC Classic. Another issue will be whether or not Mike Smith can make up the needed ground on horses like Summer Bird and Quality Road in a big field. I don’t believe it’s possible, but just the fact she will run against the fellas in the biggest race in America means she gets mad props.
Rip Van Winkle - - +200
The odds are ridiculously low on Aidan O’Brien’s charge who has done his best work at the mile distance. Yes, he did finish second to Sea The Stars in the Grade I Coral Eclipse at 1 ¼ miles but he has run at 1 mile twice since then. Does Van Winkle have enough of a bottom to take on the best in America? I also believe that he’s getting overbet because of what Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass did in the 2008 BC Classic. Both of those horses had only one American horse to beat in Curlin. This field is much tougher with both Quality Road and Summer Bird proving to be two of the best 3 year old males to come along in the United States in a very, very long time. Richard’s Kid isn’t a slouch either. Rip Van Winkle is a great horse and he’s a good shot to win the Classic, but the odds don’t justify any semblance of a win wager.
On Race Day
I love Summer Bird and will bet him right now at the 5 to 1 odds in the sportsbook to win. I also like Quality Road and will bet an exacta box with the two best American horses. Both Summer Bird and Quality Road will key my trifecta wager.
I will go four deep in my Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets by using Richard’s Kid, Twice Over, Quality Road and Summer Bird.
