Breeders' Cup Betting - The Million Dollar Dirt Mile

Race-day: 11/7/2009

Race-time: 5:12 pm EST

Aidan O’Brien is definitely going for the money by saddling his brilliant turf star, Mastercraftsman, in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

Of course, the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile isn’t being run over the dirt at all. It’s being run over the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita. That, of course, is one of the reasons that Mastercraftsman, who was brilliant in his last over an all weather surface, is a 6 to 5 favorite to win the Dirt Mile.

O’Brien believes in winning races and even though Mastercraftsman would have been a solid second choice to Goldikova in the mile, or a solid second or third choice to Conduit in the Turf, O’Brien has decided to go after easier prey by putting his star into the Dirt Mile. It could pay off. After all, winning a million dollar race is a big accomplishment no matter what surface the race is run.

Let’s take a look at the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

Santa Anita – Race 7

Grade I Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

$1,000,000

For Three Year Olds and Upward

1 mile on Pro-Ride

Midshipman - - 6/1 morning line odds

The Santa Anita track has been playing towards speed. There’s a lack of it in this race which means that Midshipman, who won the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over this track on the lead, is destined for victory in the Dirt Mile.

Jockey Garrett Gomez is a master at nursing a horse on the lead. He might not have to with the son of Unbridled’s Song who was brilliant in a 6 ½ furlong prep for this. Now under the care of Godolphin and trainer Saeed Bin Suroor, Midshipman and dare Mastercraftsman and Bullsbay, the other two top contenders in this race, to go after him. If they don’t early, he wins going away.

Mastercraftsman - - 6/5 morning line odds

He’s just the classiest horse in this field, will be a single on most Pick 4 and Pick 6 tickets, and could win by 10 or more lengths. Then again, he is a closer in a race lacking in speed which means that he’ll have just as much work to do as anybody else at the top of the stretch when Midshipman kicks it into gear.

Will he be able to pass the lone speed? I’m betting that he won’t, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t the second likeliest winner in this race.

Furthest Land - - 20/1 morning line odds

He’s going to be the closest horse to Midshipman early on in this race. That in itself gives him a shot, but he’s just not as classy as Mastercraftsman or Midshipman which means that he probably does no better than third in this. Then again, he is out of Smart Strike and appears to be in top form after winning the Grade II Kentucky Cup Classic in his last. He’s got an outside shot at the victory should neither Mstercraftsman nor Midshipman fire.

Wagering Strategy

Midshipman is the bet to win and place. I will also key Midshipman over Mastercraftsman in a big exacta. I will reverse for less.

I will play a smaller exacta box with Midshipman and Furthest Land.