posted November 4, 2009 at 13:00 EST in Horse Racing Free Picks
2009 Breeders Cup Week - Pony Picks from Aqueduct
Breeders’ Cup Week is here, and we are just 48 hours from Friday’s outstanding card. The 14 races covering the two days will offer up more than $25 million in purses and plenty of attractions for every bettor including a $3 million Ultra Pick 6 on Saturday.
That gives us some added incentive to pad our bankroll the next couple of days at Aqueduct, and today’s card certainly holds some promise.
The play of the day is a modest $16,000 claiming race with a purse of $25,000, a far cry from the dough that will be handed out later this week at Santa Anita.
However, a $50 or so exacta payoff on our play of the day will spend just as well as a $50 exacta on one of the Breeders’ Cup races.
Our Late Pick 3 has a chalky middle leg, as Solar Flare looks like he is going to be tough to beat in the Half High Stakes, but the other two legs in the sequence are wide open and we should be able to catch a couple of prices.
Today's Play of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 4 Clm $16,000 (1:52 ET)
#6 Stepaside 9/2
#10 Bon Marie 4/1
#1 Midwatch 6/1
#3 Ballast 3/1
Analysis: #6 Stepaside had a tough post last out and after getting off last raced wide much of the trip and flattened out in the stretch to finish seventh against Alw-2 optional claimers at Laurel Park. The gelding makes his second start off a two-month break and drops into an easier spot here tagged for $16K and is making his first start for the Bush barn. He draws better here and he has ruin well on the turf in the past, landing in the exacta in eight of his first 13 starts on the lawn. Garcia takes the call and we should catch a fair price.
#10 Bon Marie has won three in a row and has not run a bad one since Tony D. took over this guy, who ran in a restricted $5K claimer last fall. The eight year old is an 11-time winner on turf and looks primed for a good effort here in his third start of his current corm cycle. The barn was 0 for 2 here last week but over the past 90 days in NY has hit at a 37% clip. Ramon sticks and this guy figures to be bet down from his 4/1 ML odds.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 6,10 / 6,8,10,13
TRI: 6,10 / 6,8,10,13 / 6,8,10,11,13
Today’s Pick 3 Play from Aqueduct:
Starting in Race 7: $1: 1,3,10 / 2,5,6,7 / 5,10 = $24
AQU Race 7 Clm $35,000 (3:16 ET)
#3 Rogue Victory, #1 Adagio / #1a Optimer, #10 Big Stick
#3 Rogue Victory drops into an easier spot here after checking in tenth and last in the Ky Cup Turf (G3). Two back he stumbled, dumping Prado in the process. Three back this guy was a solid second against Alw-3 optional claimers at Monmouth. The horse that beat him that day was Tastefull Smart, who came back to win and then run second in two starts since, both against Alw-3 optional claimers. The colt figures to bounce back here on the class drop.
#1 Adagio comes in riding a three race win streak for the Dutrow barn, last out for a $25K tag. His last three figs put him squarely in the mix here. His entrymate #1a Optimer has won four in a row, last out beating $25K foes as well. RRod rode this guy two a pair of those victories. He completes a strong entry but the price will probably drift downward off the 3/1 ML.
AQU Race 8 Half High S. (3:44 ET)
#5 Solar Flare, #2 Gold Trippi, #6 Timber Reserve, #7 More Than a Reason
#5 Solar Flare is making his first start since July where the five year old checked in third in the Salvatore Mile (G3). He regressed off a huge effort two back when he popped a 111 Beyer winning the Frisk Me Now at Monmouth Park back in May. He lands with the Tony D. barn that is 27% winners with newcomers to the barn. The works signal this guy looks ready to fire and the barn finds a good spot here in this overnight stake.
#2 Gold Trippi is coming off a runner up finish behind Biker Boy in a non conditioned optional claimer. The gelding owns a solid pace profile throughout with good late pace numbers and should get a good pace set up here. He also has won 2 of his 3 starts over the main track.
AQU Race 9 Md $25,000 (4:12 ET)
#10 Top Mast, #5 First Feat
#10 Top Mast drops in for a tag for the first time here for the Albertrani barn that is 3 for 11 (with a +ROI) with horses dropping from maiden special to maiden claiming. Two back the filly had a bum post and raced wide throughout. Last out she had trouble in a last place finish. She was in tight, bumped and had to steady leaving the chute, raced wide and faded in the stretch. She has a decent pedigree, by Mizzen Mast out of a Theatrical mare that has dropped two other foals to race, one turf winner. Encouraging seeing Ramon back on board today.
#5 First Feat drops in for a tag for her local debut for the Klesaris barn that is 30% winners with horses dropping from maiden special to maiden claiming. She raced evenly last out in a sixth place finish going a mile at Del Park. She is out of a Cozzene mare that has dropped two winners including turf winner Altered ($58K).
Price Plays From Aqueduct:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
R2: #2 Vamel 15/1
R2: #9 Bindle Stick 10/1
R3: #4 Viable 8/1
R5: #7 Press Only 10/1
R6: #4 Golden Caesar 15/1
R7: #3 Rogue Victory 8/1
R8: #6 Timber Reserve 8/1
R9: #1 Southern Princess / #1a As Promised 12/1
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
