posted November 7, 2009 at 11:30 EST in Horse Racing Articles
Breeders' Cup 2009 - $1 and $2 Million Dollar Juvenile Races
by Mike Rose
Padding Your Bankroll: Saturday November 7
Breeders’ Cup 2009 Saturday is here, eight championship races with $17 million in purses up for grabs.
The key as a horseplayer to having a good day may lie with the pair of two year olds races.
Both the Juvenile and Juvenile Turf have large fields and are wide open races.
The $1 million Juvenile Turf starts off the day with a full field of twelve including four European invaders.
The $2 million Juvenile drew a field of 13, with the morning line favorite Lookin At Lucky drawing the far outside post, and the likely second choice D’Funnybone never having raced on a synthetic surface or around two turns.
Both races have the potential of generous payoffs and they will be the focus today:
SA Race 2 BC Juvenile Turf G2 (10:45 PT)
- #4 Pounced 9/2
- #2 Viscount Nelson 6/1
- #7 Bridgetown 8/1
- #11 Interactif 4/1
Analysis: #4 Pounced can set the tone for the Euros today as the colt looks like the best and most promising of the overseas shippers in here. The colt was a good second last out in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (G1), which was his first start against winners. He finished ahead of Buzzword and Beethoven in the outing.
That runner up finish was at seven furlongs and all indications are this guy will move forward with the additional ground. He is in good hands with the John Gosden barn that won this race last year with Donativum, and later on the card last year won the Classic with Euro shipper Raven's Pass.
Dettori was aboard both of the barn's winners last year and Gosden dumps Fortune to go back to him today. Timeform has our top two picks listed equal at 111p while the Racing Post ratings have our top pick with a 114-112 edge.
#2 Viscount Nelson is coming off a solid runner up finish in the Champagne (G1) going seven furlongs over good to firm ground at Doncaster. He looks like he needs more ground and is certainly bred to handle the two turns. This Aidan O'Brien colt has quite the pedigree.
He is by Giant’s Causeway out of the stakes winner Imagine ($527K) who has dropped three other winners including Horatio Nelson ($488K) and Red Rock Canyon ($354K). The mare won the Irish 1000 Guineas and Irish Oaks. O'Brien seems loaded this year but his career BC record is just 3 for 52, but many of his runners have performed well, as he has 11 runner up finishes.
#7 Bridgetown might have the best shot of the U.S. based runners as #11 Interactif has a tough draw and is going to be a light price. The Speightstown colt won the Summer (G3) last out at Woodbine in his first go against winners. The Speightstown colt is a half brother to stakes winner Carnacks Choice ($264,905) who did his best running sprinting.
The fifth and sixth place finishers in the Summer both came back to run second in $250K stakes at Woodbine in their next starts. The McPeek barn has been on a roll with two year olds this year and this colt has enough tactical speed to get into a good spot early.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,7,11
TRI: 2,4 / 2,4,7,11 / 2,4,7,10,11,12
SA Race 5 BC Juvenile G1 (12:49 PT)
- #11 Radiohead 15/1
- #8 Eskendereya 10/1
- #13 Lookin At Lucky 8/5
- #4 Noble's Promise 8/1
Analysis: #11 Radiohead is an interesting Euro invader here and note IEAH Stable bought a piece of this guy, who has only raced on turf and has not been beyond six furlongs in his six starts. Last out he was a fast closing second in the Middle Park Stakes (G1) at Newmarket, beaten a half length for the top spot.
His best effort was in the Norfolk (G2) four back where he was rank early, was nearly bumped sideways in the stretch and came back to win by two lengths. The colt should have no problem handling the extra ground. He is by '01 Juvenile winner Johannesburg out of a Belong to Me mare. The fact that Dwyer is up and not Spencer will keep my blood pressure in check, and we should catch a decent price although I think this colt is going to see some action on the tote.
#8 Eskendereya was a much the best winner in the off the turf Pilgrim although he only had to beat four foes. He handled turf in his debut, checking in a good second, so I am hoping he will take to the Pro Ride. He is out of Giant’s Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare that has dropped one other foal to race, G1 winner Balmont ($472K). The colt has worked smartly since his last start and still appears to have plenty of upside and figures to get overlooked on the tote here.
#13 Lookin At Lucky is undefeated in four starts including winning the Norfolk (G1) over the main track here. Baffert is very high on this colt and he figures to go off as the favorite despite the really tough post. Breaking from the 12 and 13 post over this main track is a kiss of death and could be tough to overcome for a two year old, even one this talented. He has one sib to race, stakes winner Kensei ($553K). He might be one of the shortest pries on the day, and just tough to back him at the ML of 8/5 or possibly less.
Wagering
WIN: #11 to win at 6/1 or better.
EX: 8,11 / 4,8,11,13
TRI: 8,11 / 4,8,11,13 / 3,4,5,8,11,13
Price Plays for Breeders’ Cup Saturday:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
- R2: #7 Bridgetown 8/1
- R3: #4 Lord Shanakill 8/1
- R3: #7 Gotta have Her 15/1
- R3: #12 Strike the Deal 15/1
- R4: #4 Crown of Thorns 12/1
- R5: #11 Radiohead 15/1
- R5: #8 Eskendereya 10/1
- R5: #4 Noble’s Promise 8/1
- R6: #8 Zacinto 8/1
- R6: #10 Justenuffhumor 10/1
- R7: #8 Mr. Sidney 12/1
- R7: #9 Chocolate Candy 15/1
- R9: #7 Gio Ponti 12/1
- R9: #8 Einstein 12/1
- R9: #9 Girolamo 20/1
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
