posted November 7, 2009 at 10:00 EST in Horse Racing Articles
2009 Breeders’ Cup Betting - These Favorites Could Burn a Hole in Your Pocket
The 2009 Breeder’s Cup is just around the corner and already bettors are figuring out the tickets that they will play on both Nov. 6th and Nov. 7th.
Like every year, the Breeders’ Cup will offer horseplayers plenty of opportunity for profits. Horseplayers, though, should try not to get sucked into betting short-priced favorites that either have no shot or could be vulnerable to a higher-priced horse.
Let’s take a look at some of those horses that should be underlays in the Breeders’ Cup.
Favorites to Stay Away From
Seventh Street - - Fillies and Mares Sprint - - The daughter of Street Cry has never finished off the board in 9 races, but she’s done most of her racing against suspect fields, turns back to 7 furlongs after running around two turns and faces a bunch of talented peers in this. She should go off second choice to Ventura in the Fillies and Mares Sprint.
Magical Fantasy - - Filly and Mare Turf - - She’s been almost unbeatable lately and figures to go off close to favoritism in this, but this field is very tough. She’s been beating up on horses at Santa Anita and because she’s been running so well over the turf course, some bettors might give her more credit than she deserves. The truth is that she just isn’t the right horse to bet in this race because there are classier sorts, like Midday and Maram, than she.
Forever Together - - Filly and Mare Turf - - The defending champion has every right to win this but Midday is close to being a monster and Maram has a huge upside. Forever Together will go off no better than 4 to 1. At those odds, she’s an underlay as her form is somewhat off and she just doesn’t have the class of Maram and Midday.& The field she beat in this race last year just wasn’t as good as this field.
Interactif - - Juvenile Turf - - Breathtaking move around the final turn in the Bourbon?Yes. Deserves to be the favorite in Juvenile Turf? No. The Bourbon was still a Grade III and Viscount Nelson and Pounced weren’t in that race. He could be tough but beating a bunch of Grade III types is different than taking on the best that Europe has to offer.
Strike The Deal - - Turf Sprint - - This Jeremy Noseda invader sure looks the part of a Breeders’ Cup Champion. He’s won his last two sprinting on the turf in Europe, can stay close or come from off the pace, and gets LanFranco Dettori to ride. But he’s never run down the hill and, yes, it’s a big deal. At the expected odds, bettors have to pass.
Regal Ransom - - Dirt Mile - - He’s super fast, yes, but that’s on dirt. This is Pro-Ride. Bettors shouldn’t be fooled into thinking that this guy will be able to both run Karelian, Join The Dance and Girolamo into the ground and then hold off Midshipman and Pyro.
Lookin At Lucky - - Juvenile - - Yes, he is undefeated. Yes, he’s been close to perfect at Santa Anita, but he’s really hasn’t come close to facing a field like this. Todd Pletcher has a couple in here and the Europeans believe that they have a few that could challenge. The home field advantage is great, but Lookin At Lucky looks overmatched in the Juvenile.
Goldikova - - Mile - - She won it in 2008 and could be tough again, but Court Vision was awesome in Shadwell Turf Mile and Delegator and Zacinto are in pretty good form. Then, there’s Mr. Sidney who can be very, very good on any given day. Too much competition and short odds means pass.
Zensational - - Sprint - - No doubt that he’s won of the better horses in the race, but he’s also facing speed in Fatal Bullet that he’s never seen before.; Not only that, but Kodiak Kowboy, Capt. Candyman Can and Gayego aren’t just closers, they’re quality closers. It’s going to be tough for this guy to win this.
Zenyatta - - Classic - - Trainer John Shirreffs has said that more than likely she’ll go in the Classic. If that’s the case, then there’s nothing to it. She can’t be bet. No matter what her connections or other horseplayers are saying, she’s at the tail end of her career. Not only that but these are good, good horses and her speed ratings haven’t been up to snuff lately.
Rip Van Winkle - - Classic - - Like Zenyatta, the racebook has him pegged as a 2 to 1 favorite to win the Classic. I don’t think so. Summer Bird and Quality Road are just too good for bettors to wager on a short-priced European horse. I’m not buying the fact that Henrythenavigator ran well in last year’s Classic so Rip Van Winkle should run well in this year’s classic. Summer Bird is on fire and Quality Road should take a big step forward in the Classic.
